13 takeaways from last night’s elections

A Democratic sweep so total it’s hard to make a lot of smart points about it

Americans went to the polls last night in New Jersey, New York City, Virginia, and a few other states. We’ll have more later on this very good night for Democrats, but today we wanted to share our initial reactions to the results (and if you need a reminder of what was on the ballot where, check out our comprehensive overview).

From Matt:

1. What candidates do matters: Jay Jones ran four to five points behind Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, clearly hurt by the coverage of his violent texting scandal. That wasn’t enough to change the outcome of the race, but it clearly mattered to a non-trivial number of voters.

2. Actual governance matters: New Jersey and Virginia have similar underlying partisanship. But Spanberger did considerably better, in no small part because Mikie Sherrill’s opponent was able to tie her to the state’s unpopular two-term Democratic governor in a way that didn’t apply in Virginia. Sherrill’s campaign message would likely have fared better in the Garden State if Phil Murphy had made different choices that led to outcomes New Jersey liked better.

3. Spanberger and Sherrill had very similar profiles as House members, but I would note that Spanberger refused to endorse ending Virginia’s “right to work” status and cost herself the A.F.L.-C.I.O. endorsement in the process. I can’t think of a comparably bold move from Sherrill vis-à-vis the groups, nor does it seem like Spanberger paid any cost.

4. The left bought so much Zohran stock during the extended battle with Andrew Cuomo that the “Mamdani is the future” spin is inevitable. But is winning 50 percent of the vote in New York City all that impressive? If he does manage to create city-owned grocery stores and the stores are amazing and people love them, that will be impressive and a great policy to copy. As we wrote earlier today, now comes the interesting part.

5. N.Y.C.’s housing-supply charter amendments all passed, over the vociferous objections of a City Council obsessed with hoarding its own power rather than solving problems. That’s good news for the city, though it’s far from clear to me exactly how much these measures will actually impact the amount of housing that is built.

6. Low turnout helps Democrats: Spanberger and Sherrill did well compared to Kamala Harris, but the Democratic nominees for two statewide seats on a Georgia utility regulation board absolutely crushed their margins in a redder state. What was their secret? This election was super-obscure, and Democrats dominate when low-propensity voters stay home.

7. In Maine, Republicans backed a ballot measure to impose voter ID requirements and restrict absentee voting — two measures that would reduce turnout. Democrats opposed it, and it failed miserably as part of the overall national wave. But passage would have helped Democrats who opposed it and hurt Republicans who supported it. Neither party has internalized the turnout flip.

8. Harris got 52 percent in Virginia versus a projected 57 percent for Spanberger. Harris got 44 percent in Ohio and 43 percent in Iowa. If you add five to those numbers, Democrats maybe win Ohio and still almost certainly lose Iowa. And this is the Senate problem in a nutshell: a really strong national climate isn’t good enough.

9. Trump’s approval rating, which has been stable this term, has been getting notably worse since around the demolition of the East Wing of the White House. I’ve been wondering if that was illusory, but the beating Republicans took suggests it’s real.

10. California’s Prop 50 enacting retaliatory redistricting to counteract Texas’s efforts passed easily. The polling on this idea was initially pretty weak, and it’s a real example of Democratic Party elites turning things around with their messaging.

11. Speaking of redistricting, in New Jersey, we saw Sherrill win back a lot of the Hispanic support that Trump picked up in 2024. That’s not the most surprising thing in the world — newly converted voters are often pretty swingy. But it’s a reminder that the South Texas Hispanic voters who Trump did so well with in 2020 and 2024 shouldn’t be viewed as unwinnable by Democrats. Good candidates with appropriate issue positions could win back those voters.

From Halina:

1. Pennsylvania voters retained all three Democratic justices in a rare, high-stakes election to decide whether they would stay on the bench, preserving the court’s liberal majority. What’s striking isn’t the outcome; retention votes are almost always a formality. But this one drew unprecedented spending and partisan attention, reflecting how even procedural judicial votes in swing states have become frontlines in the battle over voting, redistricting, and control of the courts.

2. In Mississippi, Democrat Justin Crosby’s upset win over G.O.P. Rep. Jon Lancaster in State House District 22 was the headline race, notching a symbolic win for Democrats in a newly drawn majority-Black district. Overall, Republicans maintained strong majorities in both chambers, though Democrats broke a Republican supermajority in the Senate, revealing the limits of representation reform without a broader political realignment.