I want Waymo for Father's Day for all the reasons you cite! It is especially frustrating as a parent to be like "yay, no more daycare, my 11 year old is more independent...wait, soccer practice at 4:30 twice a week?"
"In general, women are more likely to be skeptical of emerging technology. A poll for The Argument this fall showed that 39 percent of men wanted to allow self-driving cars, but just 19 percent of women said the same. That stat isn’t a one-off: Forty-eight percent of women wanted to ban the technology compared to just 32 percent of men. In other words, the people who stand to benefit the most are also the most skeptical."
Fascinating - that's what I've found as well. Guys are like, "Wow, this is amazing I can't wait to try it." And women, almost universally are saying, "Absolutely not."
Would love to see Waymo offer vehicles with built-in children’s seats eventually. Especially in a large urban market, it would not be hard for a company to keep a small fraction of the fleet “family friendly” and make those an option to choose from the ride hailing app of choice.
It’s not hard to carry a booster (or even a bigger foldable forward facings seat) around and you will want that rather than relying on Waymo’s installation
I say this as someone who relied on one before getting a second car
To say the least, gender parity is far from the best argument I’ve heard for this amazing technology (which will save thousands of lives and open the door to many other benefits). But I suppose I’ll take whatever avenues of support are available.
Sure, but in the context of a Mother's Day special I think it's fair enough to put a spotlight on how this could alleviate an issue mothers especially have where they have to play taxi-driver for kids who need to go places but can't drive themselves.
"Can women get around cities safely at night" is also a good argument for policing public transit effectively. But agreed it's frustrating we even have to rely on such arguments
Waymo does depend on backup teleoperation for a small fraction of unusual situations. And it’s also essential that they’re working in areas where they have enough car presence that they stay updated on changing conditions of potholes and debris in the street and the like. It’s a lot harder to scale this to personal ownership.
Aren’t they part of Alphabet? Seems like they could get Google Maps data from, like, everyone, and I think a lot of cars are starting to be equipped with these sensors and cameras. I’m generally against my car storing or selling my data, but I don’t really have any problem with it selling that to Google for that limited purpose. It’s not like Google doesn’t know where I’m at 100% of the time anyway
OK, there are still going to be times when a self driving car is the first vehicle to see a new road, or some crazy out-of-distribution scenario happens and you need someone who isn’t 11 years old to be able to drive the vehicle
Grocery delivery is of course already available - no need for self-driving for that! Though if self-driving manages to unlock real economies of scale, then it may start making deliveries cheaper - if you’re able to go out and unload the car rather than wanting the driver to drop it at your doorstep.
I do grocery pickup rather than delivery in my current area because the stores farm delivery out to instacart which means at least a 20% tip for the gig workers who also have to shop the stuff. But pickup requires no tip because it's the grocery store's own employees. A waymo delivery would certainly come with a cost over pickup, but I think it'd eventually be a lot less than 20% of my weekly grocery bill.
Waymo and its competitors are not a panacea, but they provide a very valuable service - safe, reliable transportation - particularly for those who can’t easily get around otherwise. We need more, not fewer, such opportunities. (Yes, it feels weird the first few times you get in and the car takes you to your destination without a driver - but you get over it quickly.)
I don't see this being cost effective anytime soon. I get how it will replace conventional rideshare, and maybe opens up a few other use cases, but I'm deeply skeptical of these takes that have everyone selling their cars and using autonomous taxis exclusively. Why would I want to pay Waymo to do something I already do for myself for free?
It would depend on the price. You're paying for a vehicle that's typically isn't being used +22.5 hours a day. With higher utilization your cost per mile could be lower with a Waymo than a vehicle you own.
Depreciation is more mileage than age. I kept my last car nearly 20 years, and still got like $6k for it (and the damn stealership turned around and sold it for $10k). I'm sure the wheels will be falling of these Waymo cabs after a few years of service.
There's also the other point, I don't want to hail a cab (autonomous or otherwise) every time I need to go somewhere. I want my car in my garage which I have exclusive use of and which I can leave stuff in. If it can drive itself, great.
Obviously this doesn’t affect, everyone, but it’s not unheard of for people to pay hundreds of dollars a month for parking in a major city. Higher utilization also means less money spent on building parking structures.
You’re clearly not the marginal consumer here, and that’s fine, but I wouldn’t discount the business model just because it’s not relevant to you.
There's definitely a business to be had here, I'm sure they'll make money. It's the more expansive takes about how this will upend private car ownership entirely that I'm deeply skeptical of.
I suspect it’ll eventually do so *just* enough to be a huge culture war issue.
That is, people in walkable places who are already kind of marginal car owners will decide they can do without. Meanwhile rural residents will definitely still need one. And in the middle, a continuum of how much you need a private car (and how many) based on how dense your neighborhood is.
You can hear the culture war nonsense already just from this description: “those godless commies want to push us into car collectivism” vs “conservatives just don’t care about people, it’s why they’re still driving in their own cars”
Separate from efficiencies associated with higher utilization, getting the time back from driving will be worth it for a lot of people. For a professional earning a high enough salary, being able to work during your commute would be worth the premium. There are a lot of things I could do myself for free, but I pay someone else to do it because I don’t have the time.
There’s a whole continuum of scale. You might as well say there’s no point in first class seats in commercial flights because rich people have private jets.
I think commercial air is more like the city bus in this comparison. Riding the bus would definitely save money, but that juice isn't worth the squeeze. Just like rich people can opt out of the TSA and airline experience. Most people can't afford that, but they can afford a car.
> There’s good reason for this. From 2017 to 2022, a total of 400,181 Uber trips resulted in reports of sexual assault and sexual misconduct in the United States alone, court documents examined by the New York Times show.
Mentioning this is irresponsible, if not dishonest, without mentioning the denominator: **11 million rides.** This is a rate of slightly less than 1 per 5000. If you commute by Uber every weekday, both ways, 52 weeks a year, you would average less than one sexual assault per **decade**, two if you assume that all assaults. That is very, very far from being the most dangerous thing you do that night. "Would you rather be alone with a man or a bear" tier. If you cross a street drunk to get to the Uber, that's probably significantly more dangerous than the ride.
I think you're on the right track, but where did you get the 11 million number? I think it's around 2 billion. The rest of your math checks out.
BTW, it's important to note for context regarding even that 400k number:
"Ms. Nilles said that about 75 percent of the 400,181 reports were “less serious,” such as making comments about someone’s appearance, flirting or using explicit language. She added that the reports had not been audited by the company and could include incorrect or fraudulent reports submitted by people trying to get a refund."
School buses just didn’t exist in my hometown, or didn’t exist for my neighborhood, or something. I still don’t understand what exactly the situation was, just that I legitimately thought school buses were some sort of TV myth until I moved to my current location a few years ago.
I grew up in Italy, and from an early age (5, if I recall correctly) I had a monthly bus ticket and went everywhere around the city by bus (I couldn't bike due to a health issue affecting my sense of equilibrium). At 14, as is still very typical in Italy, I got a small motorbike ("ciclomotore"-- e.g. a Vespa would be one, although mine was a different brand) and went everywhere on that, having outgrown my equilibrium issues enough.
Later, my children did get their ciclomotori at 14, but the cultural vibes had shifted enough that my wife vetoed their going by bus all the time on their own until they were, I believe, 11 or so. I wonder how my four grandchildren, now aged 3 to 11, will fare, as cultural norms keep shifting...
When I was growing up my parents could afford a membership with the local cab company. From ages 14 onwards I took taxis or public transit to music lessons, sports, heading back from late after school activities, going to a friend's place across town, etc.
I also come from a country that is not nearly as neurotic about "stranger danger" as the US. When I bring this up with Americans they all act like my parents were crazy to allow such a dangerous thing, but I always felt safe and if anything with cell phones, live tracking, and a guarantee of background checks it's even safer now.
All this to say, you can already do this, you just need to get over the discomfort with strangers.
Oh I would have gone everywhere (and gotten into trouble, naturally) had I grown up in an urban environment. As it was in the suburbs without transit service I would ride my bike for miles but couldn’t really go anywhere exciting (though I still got into trouble)
This is fine once your kids are out of child seats. Until then, Waymo (and most ride share services) are not much help, and it will be very expensive for these driving options to have child seat options readily available. And it is the time that the kids are in car seats that the driving is most burdensome and distracting.
Are your kids still small? Because no driving is not easier with older kids. Just because there’s no car seat doesn’t mean taxi servicing all day is easy. What’s hard is just different.
I want Waymo for Father's Day for all the reasons you cite! It is especially frustrating as a parent to be like "yay, no more daycare, my 11 year old is more independent...wait, soccer practice at 4:30 twice a week?"
"In general, women are more likely to be skeptical of emerging technology. A poll for The Argument this fall showed that 39 percent of men wanted to allow self-driving cars, but just 19 percent of women said the same. That stat isn’t a one-off: Forty-eight percent of women wanted to ban the technology compared to just 32 percent of men. In other words, the people who stand to benefit the most are also the most skeptical."
Fascinating - that's what I've found as well. Guys are like, "Wow, this is amazing I can't wait to try it." And women, almost universally are saying, "Absolutely not."
Extends beyond information technology too, women are also more skeptical of nuclear power and genetically modified food.
Would love to see Waymo offer vehicles with built-in children’s seats eventually. Especially in a large urban market, it would not be hard for a company to keep a small fraction of the fleet “family friendly” and make those an option to choose from the ride hailing app of choice.
It’s not hard to carry a booster (or even a bigger foldable forward facings seat) around and you will want that rather than relying on Waymo’s installation
I say this as someone who relied on one before getting a second car
Omg this yes!!
To say the least, gender parity is far from the best argument I’ve heard for this amazing technology (which will save thousands of lives and open the door to many other benefits). But I suppose I’ll take whatever avenues of support are available.
Sure, but in the context of a Mother's Day special I think it's fair enough to put a spotlight on how this could alleviate an issue mothers especially have where they have to play taxi-driver for kids who need to go places but can't drive themselves.
Fair!
"Can women get around cities safely at night" is also a good argument for policing public transit effectively. But agreed it's frustrating we even have to rely on such arguments
I don’t want Waymo, I want the technology in a vehicle I own.
Waymo does depend on backup teleoperation for a small fraction of unusual situations. And it’s also essential that they’re working in areas where they have enough car presence that they stay updated on changing conditions of potholes and debris in the street and the like. It’s a lot harder to scale this to personal ownership.
No doubt, but I bet we get there in a decade.
Aren’t they part of Alphabet? Seems like they could get Google Maps data from, like, everyone, and I think a lot of cars are starting to be equipped with these sensors and cameras. I’m generally against my car storing or selling my data, but I don’t really have any problem with it selling that to Google for that limited purpose. It’s not like Google doesn’t know where I’m at 100% of the time anyway
OK, there are still going to be times when a self driving car is the first vehicle to see a new road, or some crazy out-of-distribution scenario happens and you need someone who isn’t 11 years old to be able to drive the vehicle
I’m sure it’s happened already, but I bet self-driving can get video game style glitches.
The new Mercedes basically has it.
https://youtu.be/xlc8EOtxKm8?si=aVRlVfjN8bVYrhN2
How much? You know I'm looking.
Starts at $42k for the A220. IIRC the self driving is $3,500.
They’ve always been leaders in car tech, nice to see!
Don't let the perfect become the enemy of the "pretty good!"
Yeah, I would rather have that myself, but having a fleet of taxis would be cool too, especially when traveling
This assumes people don’t want to use their kids as a reason to cut out of work early
Grocery delivery is of course already available - no need for self-driving for that! Though if self-driving manages to unlock real economies of scale, then it may start making deliveries cheaper - if you’re able to go out and unload the car rather than wanting the driver to drop it at your doorstep.
I do grocery pickup rather than delivery in my current area because the stores farm delivery out to instacart which means at least a 20% tip for the gig workers who also have to shop the stuff. But pickup requires no tip because it's the grocery store's own employees. A waymo delivery would certainly come with a cost over pickup, but I think it'd eventually be a lot less than 20% of my weekly grocery bill.
Waymo and its competitors are not a panacea, but they provide a very valuable service - safe, reliable transportation - particularly for those who can’t easily get around otherwise. We need more, not fewer, such opportunities. (Yes, it feels weird the first few times you get in and the car takes you to your destination without a driver - but you get over it quickly.)
I don't see this being cost effective anytime soon. I get how it will replace conventional rideshare, and maybe opens up a few other use cases, but I'm deeply skeptical of these takes that have everyone selling their cars and using autonomous taxis exclusively. Why would I want to pay Waymo to do something I already do for myself for free?
It would depend on the price. You're paying for a vehicle that's typically isn't being used +22.5 hours a day. With higher utilization your cost per mile could be lower with a Waymo than a vehicle you own.
Depreciation is more mileage than age. I kept my last car nearly 20 years, and still got like $6k for it (and the damn stealership turned around and sold it for $10k). I'm sure the wheels will be falling of these Waymo cabs after a few years of service.
There's also the other point, I don't want to hail a cab (autonomous or otherwise) every time I need to go somewhere. I want my car in my garage which I have exclusive use of and which I can leave stuff in. If it can drive itself, great.
Obviously this doesn’t affect, everyone, but it’s not unheard of for people to pay hundreds of dollars a month for parking in a major city. Higher utilization also means less money spent on building parking structures.
You’re clearly not the marginal consumer here, and that’s fine, but I wouldn’t discount the business model just because it’s not relevant to you.
There's definitely a business to be had here, I'm sure they'll make money. It's the more expansive takes about how this will upend private car ownership entirely that I'm deeply skeptical of.
Hard agree - these takes drive me bonkers. People love their cars.
I suspect it’ll eventually do so *just* enough to be a huge culture war issue.
That is, people in walkable places who are already kind of marginal car owners will decide they can do without. Meanwhile rural residents will definitely still need one. And in the middle, a continuum of how much you need a private car (and how many) based on how dense your neighborhood is.
You can hear the culture war nonsense already just from this description: “those godless commies want to push us into car collectivism” vs “conservatives just don’t care about people, it’s why they’re still driving in their own cars”
I suspect this will be an 80/20 issue in favor of private car ownership for the foreseeable future.
Only 20? Luxury! I kept mine 30 years, when I sold it it was just a bit of rust around a VIN number.
Separate from efficiencies associated with higher utilization, getting the time back from driving will be worth it for a lot of people. For a professional earning a high enough salary, being able to work during your commute would be worth the premium. There are a lot of things I could do myself for free, but I pay someone else to do it because I don’t have the time.
Yes, and that person would probably own an autonomous vehicle. Just like rich people now have private drivers that work on their schedule and not Uber
There’s a whole continuum of scale. You might as well say there’s no point in first class seats in commercial flights because rich people have private jets.
There are people with private jets too. That doesn't mean there's no commercial airlines
I think commercial air is more like the city bus in this comparison. Riding the bus would definitely save money, but that juice isn't worth the squeeze. Just like rich people can opt out of the TSA and airline experience. Most people can't afford that, but they can afford a car.
> There’s good reason for this. From 2017 to 2022, a total of 400,181 Uber trips resulted in reports of sexual assault and sexual misconduct in the United States alone, court documents examined by the New York Times show.
Mentioning this is irresponsible, if not dishonest, without mentioning the denominator: **11 million rides.** This is a rate of slightly less than 1 per 5000. If you commute by Uber every weekday, both ways, 52 weeks a year, you would average less than one sexual assault per **decade**, two if you assume that all assaults. That is very, very far from being the most dangerous thing you do that night. "Would you rather be alone with a man or a bear" tier. If you cross a street drunk to get to the Uber, that's probably significantly more dangerous than the ride.
I think you're on the right track, but where did you get the 11 million number? I think it's around 2 billion. The rest of your math checks out.
BTW, it's important to note for context regarding even that 400k number:
"Ms. Nilles said that about 75 percent of the 400,181 reports were “less serious,” such as making comments about someone’s appearance, flirting or using explicit language. She added that the reports had not been audited by the company and could include incorrect or fraudulent reports submitted by people trying to get a refund."
The idea of, from 10 to 16 years, moms (or dads, or personal motorists) taking kids to and from school seems so strange...
I have many doubts if the kind of parents who as afraid of their children going alone to school would be safe in putting them in a self.driving car...
It's not about safety. The custom has changed so there is a lot more peer pressure to drive kids to school and not make them take the bus.
School buses just didn’t exist in my hometown, or didn’t exist for my neighborhood, or something. I still don’t understand what exactly the situation was, just that I legitimately thought school buses were some sort of TV myth until I moved to my current location a few years ago.
I mean, the bus sucked, but I didn’t die
I grew up in Italy, and from an early age (5, if I recall correctly) I had a monthly bus ticket and went everywhere around the city by bus (I couldn't bike due to a health issue affecting my sense of equilibrium). At 14, as is still very typical in Italy, I got a small motorbike ("ciclomotore"-- e.g. a Vespa would be one, although mine was a different brand) and went everywhere on that, having outgrown my equilibrium issues enough.
Later, my children did get their ciclomotori at 14, but the cultural vibes had shifted enough that my wife vetoed their going by bus all the time on their own until they were, I believe, 11 or so. I wonder how my four grandchildren, now aged 3 to 11, will fare, as cultural norms keep shifting...
I can't wait until self-driving cars are more widely available so I can replace all my driving with more scrolling!
Slow Boring FOREVER
And if your mom is getting into or beyond middle age, go with her for a Waymo intro as a gift, if it's available nearby.
When I was growing up my parents could afford a membership with the local cab company. From ages 14 onwards I took taxis or public transit to music lessons, sports, heading back from late after school activities, going to a friend's place across town, etc.
I also come from a country that is not nearly as neurotic about "stranger danger" as the US. When I bring this up with Americans they all act like my parents were crazy to allow such a dangerous thing, but I always felt safe and if anything with cell phones, live tracking, and a guarantee of background checks it's even safer now.
All this to say, you can already do this, you just need to get over the discomfort with strangers.
Oh I would have gone everywhere (and gotten into trouble, naturally) had I grown up in an urban environment. As it was in the suburbs without transit service I would ride my bike for miles but couldn’t really go anywhere exciting (though I still got into trouble)
This is fine once your kids are out of child seats. Until then, Waymo (and most ride share services) are not much help, and it will be very expensive for these driving options to have child seat options readily available. And it is the time that the kids are in car seats that the driving is most burdensome and distracting.
You only solved 70% of the problem! How dare you!
Probably more like 100% of the problem — who is putting their two year old in a Waymo unsupervised to go see Grandma?
They are 90% safer than humans now - how much safer would they have to be until it doesn't make sense to use a car seat?
Kids over 6 can use a portable / inflatable booster seat . Below that age probably not a good idea to let kids go out alone in a Waymo
Are your kids still small? Because no driving is not easier with older kids. Just because there’s no car seat doesn’t mean taxi servicing all day is easy. What’s hard is just different.
Fantastic column, thank you!