It’s striking how the “The Trump-adjacent economic policy and business community people” seem to think they know when Trump is lying strategically to everyone else. They appear somehow convinced that they’re the only ones he hasn’t gotten fooled.
Vance does add something to the ticket, as much as I loathe him. He is young and energetic. And being a veteran provides a welcome contrast with Cadet Bone Spurs.
Just as congressional Republicans benefited from the widespread perception that Hillary was likely to win in 2016, so congressional Democrats seem to be benefiting, so far, from the widespread perception that Trump is likely to win in 2024. We'll see if that holds up! And whether it's enough to take back the House or hold onto enough Senate seats to give Murkowski and Collins (and possibly Hogan) a veto on the most crazy legislation.
More disturbing than the differences between GOP and Democratic economic policies are the similarities: rising protectionism and a head-in-the-sand attitude about the rising national debt.
> The other thing is that while I find cutting kids off from their nutrition and rental assistance to be a morally unconscionable means of fighting inflation, I think you have to concede that it “works.”
Burgum seems like a closet moderate, willing to say unconscionable things to suck up to Trump (and also to adapt to the ND mainstream on abortion), but basically an old fashioned corporate Republican.
BTW, do the broadcast networks not do sweeps week anymore? Because, as I typed the first sentence, I realized that it's been probably a decade or more since I saw a "sweeps week" reference in pop culture.
I’m starting to wonder how Trump will seek vengeance on blue states. Will he cut federal funds to blue areas disproportionately? Maybe bus illegal immigrants to “sanctuary cities”?
Pretty much all liberals know that the social policy implications of Republican victory are downright shitty (to conservatives, taking away women's right to abortion is a feature, not a bug).
Matt Y is focusing on the economic implications, because those tend to be under-discussed, with a vague but pervasive sense among the populace that Republicans are "strong on the economy."
You begin with a rather odd (to me) thought: “the odds of the GOP winning both houses of Congress, contingent on a Trump win, have always been good“. When were they ever good, what has Trump done to expand his base, what has Trump done to help the GOP win Senate or House seats. I am not saying that Trump is not ahead in the polls, but I am not sure his “victory” will have coat-tails.
I'm traveling and I have a bunch of work to catch up on, so I'm just going to leave this fly-by comment here.
Thank you, Matt Y, for writing about the concrete policy implications of GOP getting the trifecta. I think the p-word (rhymes with "shmivilege") has been overused badly and I hate using it, but based on the results of the recent SB user survey, a lot of us here are, uh, sheltered from the immediate effects of, say, a Medicaid cut. It's good for us to be told of these things!
But I hate, hate, hate the doom and gloom of "welp, Trump is unbeatable now because he's a martyr, and Biden is senile and stubborn and refuses to step down, so we are DOOMED to defeat, whaddya gonna do."
NO! F*** that! I am not going to just shrug my shoulders and say, that's it, it's all over! It may well be, but there's wayyyy too much self-fulfilling prophecy going on right now. We have to fight for our side to prevail! (Fight NONVIOLENTLY, in case that needed to be said, Jesus.)
My fellow lefty/liberal/Never Trumper Americans, we have to do what we can to help the Democrats win the election! If you're feeling hopeless, recite the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear, watch Aragorn's speech at the Black Gate in "The Return of the King," listen to some badass epic music (I'm partial to this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc6APU8wum0 or do whatever else works for you, and then make a plan! Write letters to voters, donate if you can, canvass if you're in a swing district.
Once I'm back from my travels, I'll sign up to canvass for Dave Min in CA-47. And I'm writing letters to voters with Vote Forward; I can do that regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
VOTES FOR THE VOTE GOD! TURNOUT FOR THE TURNOUT THRONE!
Thank you for pledging to engage with politics in an affirmative way. I would imagine, or at least hope, that many of us on this ‘Stack will do likewise this fall.
I will again be serving as an election precinct clerk or supervisor, not far from CA-47 territory, in fact. Given recent events I am realizing this may well be a tense day. I hope it is nothing more.
I will also look to donate to or serve a local campaign as my work schedule allows.
Well yes but actually no. If Biden is at the top of the ticket we are very much doomed to defeat (he’s behind the polls and every presidential poll with Trump running for president has *underestimated* Trump’s support).
Frankly, unless they replace Biden, that time spent trying to get Biden elected would be better spent on figuring out how to get a UK or EU passport.
Yglesias must believe that Trump can't do much damage by dangling pardons for his subordinates in the military and DOJ. Is Yglesias right? Can commenters provide me links to read that help clarify whether he's right? Thanks in advance!
So here's the upside of a Republican landslide: we'll finally get the version of party government that people like Ezra Klein have been jonseing about forever.
With a solidly Republican Congress on the same page as a Republican President, along with a totally compliant Supreme Court, we'll have the closest version to an American form of parliamentary government since, what, 1936, when the Supreme Court did their famous switch.
The Republicans will be able to do what they want -- all those notorious veto points will be wiped away.
And if that's the way it goes, well, then I guess we'll see if Americans are OK with the Republican program. If they are, then we've learned a valuable lesson about America. If not, then there's 2026 and 2028 to help rebuild some resiliency in our institutions.
I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed in the meantime, but I do say... no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops, depending on the breaks.
Weird, Matt and the comments here don’t seem to make reference to the fact Trump was shot twice days ago in PA. Any theories on the group psychology of this? Very odd.
It’s striking how the “The Trump-adjacent economic policy and business community people” seem to think they know when Trump is lying strategically to everyone else. They appear somehow convinced that they’re the only ones he hasn’t gotten fooled.
He's gonna give the voters an H. L. Mencken quote good and hard.
I have nothing to say other than this is deeply depressing.
Reminder: Older people in the US are much wealthier, on average, than young people. This is regressive (and inefficient, and anti-growth) AF.
Popping back in to say, I just saw that JD Vance is Trump's choice for VP.
Congratulations, Senator. You got what you wanted for selling your soul. You must be so proud!
Mucci predicted that Trump would pick someone who added nothing to the ticket so that he could claim it was all him.
Vance does add something to the ticket, as much as I loathe him. He is young and energetic. And being a veteran provides a welcome contrast with Cadet Bone Spurs.
Trump won’t like that. He won because Vance was a young, energetic veteran.
Just as congressional Republicans benefited from the widespread perception that Hillary was likely to win in 2016, so congressional Democrats seem to be benefiting, so far, from the widespread perception that Trump is likely to win in 2024. We'll see if that holds up! And whether it's enough to take back the House or hold onto enough Senate seats to give Murkowski and Collins (and possibly Hogan) a veto on the most crazy legislation.
More disturbing than the differences between GOP and Democratic economic policies are the similarities: rising protectionism and a head-in-the-sand attitude about the rising national debt.
> The other thing is that while I find cutting kids off from their nutrition and rental assistance to be a morally unconscionable means of fighting inflation, I think you have to concede that it “works.”
Does it?
https://youtu.be/s_4J4uor3JE?si=pg3Wr3sAWjusPkXj
So: Rubio's out, respond to this comment with guesses if it will be Burgum or Vance! We'll know in an hour or two.
I was really hoping it wouldn't be fucking Vance.
Burgum seems like a closet moderate, willing to say unconscionable things to suck up to Trump (and also to adapt to the ND mainstream on abortion), but basically an old fashioned corporate Republican.
OTOH Matt seems oddly impressed with Vance.
Sweeps Week Twist: It's Stone Cold Steve Austin!
BTW, do the broadcast networks not do sweeps week anymore? Because, as I typed the first sentence, I realized that it's been probably a decade or more since I saw a "sweeps week" reference in pop culture.
Burgum out as well, so it is definitely Stone Cold Steve Austin.
I’m starting to wonder how Trump will seek vengeance on blue states. Will he cut federal funds to blue areas disproportionately? Maybe bus illegal immigrants to “sanctuary cities”?
And what about the social policy implications of a republican landslide? (women's rights, etc.)
Pretty much all liberals know that the social policy implications of Republican victory are downright shitty (to conservatives, taking away women's right to abortion is a feature, not a bug).
Matt Y is focusing on the economic implications, because those tend to be under-discussed, with a vague but pervasive sense among the populace that Republicans are "strong on the economy."
You begin with a rather odd (to me) thought: “the odds of the GOP winning both houses of Congress, contingent on a Trump win, have always been good“. When were they ever good, what has Trump done to expand his base, what has Trump done to help the GOP win Senate or House seats. I am not saying that Trump is not ahead in the polls, but I am not sure his “victory” will have coat-tails.
Hi everyone!
I'm traveling and I have a bunch of work to catch up on, so I'm just going to leave this fly-by comment here.
Thank you, Matt Y, for writing about the concrete policy implications of GOP getting the trifecta. I think the p-word (rhymes with "shmivilege") has been overused badly and I hate using it, but based on the results of the recent SB user survey, a lot of us here are, uh, sheltered from the immediate effects of, say, a Medicaid cut. It's good for us to be told of these things!
But I hate, hate, hate the doom and gloom of "welp, Trump is unbeatable now because he's a martyr, and Biden is senile and stubborn and refuses to step down, so we are DOOMED to defeat, whaddya gonna do."
NO! F*** that! I am not going to just shrug my shoulders and say, that's it, it's all over! It may well be, but there's wayyyy too much self-fulfilling prophecy going on right now. We have to fight for our side to prevail! (Fight NONVIOLENTLY, in case that needed to be said, Jesus.)
My fellow lefty/liberal/Never Trumper Americans, we have to do what we can to help the Democrats win the election! If you're feeling hopeless, recite the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear, watch Aragorn's speech at the Black Gate in "The Return of the King," listen to some badass epic music (I'm partial to this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc6APU8wum0 or do whatever else works for you, and then make a plan! Write letters to voters, donate if you can, canvass if you're in a swing district.
Once I'm back from my travels, I'll sign up to canvass for Dave Min in CA-47. And I'm writing letters to voters with Vote Forward; I can do that regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
VOTES FOR THE VOTE GOD! TURNOUT FOR THE TURNOUT THRONE!
Thank you for pledging to engage with politics in an affirmative way. I would imagine, or at least hope, that many of us on this ‘Stack will do likewise this fall.
I will again be serving as an election precinct clerk or supervisor, not far from CA-47 territory, in fact. Given recent events I am realizing this may well be a tense day. I hope it is nothing more.
I will also look to donate to or serve a local campaign as my work schedule allows.
Well yes but actually no. If Biden is at the top of the ticket we are very much doomed to defeat (he’s behind the polls and every presidential poll with Trump running for president has *underestimated* Trump’s support).
Frankly, unless they replace Biden, that time spent trying to get Biden elected would be better spent on figuring out how to get a UK or EU passport.
I did not become a US citizen just so I could run away like a b*tch the moment Agent Orange is reelected. I’m staying.
Yglesias must believe that Trump can't do much damage by dangling pardons for his subordinates in the military and DOJ. Is Yglesias right? Can commenters provide me links to read that help clarify whether he's right? Thanks in advance!
So here's the upside of a Republican landslide: we'll finally get the version of party government that people like Ezra Klein have been jonseing about forever.
With a solidly Republican Congress on the same page as a Republican President, along with a totally compliant Supreme Court, we'll have the closest version to an American form of parliamentary government since, what, 1936, when the Supreme Court did their famous switch.
The Republicans will be able to do what they want -- all those notorious veto points will be wiped away.
And if that's the way it goes, well, then I guess we'll see if Americans are OK with the Republican program. If they are, then we've learned a valuable lesson about America. If not, then there's 2026 and 2028 to help rebuild some resiliency in our institutions.
I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed in the meantime, but I do say... no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops, depending on the breaks.
Your 1st & 2nd paragraphs are an interesting point. One party government with no veto points, here we likely come!
Weird, Matt and the comments here don’t seem to make reference to the fact Trump was shot twice days ago in PA. Any theories on the group psychology of this? Very odd.
We talked about it over the weekend, yesterday’s thread in particular.
Oh I skipped work yesterday. It was Sunday.
Two days ago…not twice
Thanks, I did a double take on that!