Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Akidderz's avatar

Nice piece Matt. I've been worried about Russia for a long time. I'm old enough that I grew up during the Cold War, but my larger concern has always been the psychological warfare that the KGB, then FSB, now IRA conducts on us and other Western countries. I'm not sure people really understand just how prevalent this is and how much damage it does. I've seen the NYTIMES report on this several times now (most recently here: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/18/us/womens-march-russia-trump.html?searchResultPosition=1) - but it still seems to be low in the proverbial collective consciousness.

I'd love for Matt to put together something on this. The Russians have always seen the West as a threat and they work constantly to undermine us. The primary way they do this is that they stoke division in our increasingly multicultural societies. They also promote class dissension and focus on Western inequality. They use social media - I'm at least partially convinced that this is why so many young people are openly socialists today. Whenever someone brings this up, the response is always something to the effect that "the problems are real, not made up by Russia" - which is absolutely true. But if our enemy (and enemy is not too light a term for Russia) spends lots of resources promulgating propaganda that is designed to divide and highlight differences in America, shouldn't we at least consider the idea that countering this narrative is important? How? By telling an American story (also propaganda) that is positive, unifying, and that focuses on the merits of our systems/society - rather than always on their failings.

The Right tries to do this (America F Yeah!) - but somewhat ineffectively in that it always feels like they are talking about an America that doesn't include everyone. But it doesn't have to be this way. We could have a strong national culture that prizes and rewards the multitudes that make up our country but still does so from a position of strength and inclusivity - rather than something that continues to foster division.

China (our other rival/enemy) is getting more into this same game of stoking divisions in America and their somewhat state-ownership of Tik Tok is one of my bigger fears. They also have strong reasons to sew dissension and they own an apparatus that provides the opportunity to dictate the memes pumped directly into young American minds.

Expand full comment
Matt Hagy's avatar

It also looks like Putin’s position is weakening, both with his international allies and at home in Russia.

China’s Xi raised issues with the Ukrainian conflict at the recent SCO summit and Putin publicly acknowledged these concerns. [1] It seems clear that China does not want to see any further escalation and will not be providing material support to aid in Putin’s war.

Further, Putin is getting significant criticism at home on multiple fronts, including opposition to the war and advocates that think more needs to be done. [2]

> On Sunday, Alla Pugacheva, a much-loved pop singer who has been a household name for Russians for decades, posted a message criticizing “illusory aims” in Ukraine that have made Russia “a pariah” that weighs “heavily on the lives of its citizens.” On the other side, nationalists are furious at inept military leadership, forcing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to warn that criticism would be fine — until it wasn’t: “The line is extremely thin. One should be very careful here.”

And Putin’s recent escalation with “partial mobilization” risks waking the apathetic masses.

> As Yuval Weber of Texas A&M's Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, DC put it to me, these masses in the middle are the real risk for the Kremlin, far more than the nationalist right. They are the ones on whom the regime has long relied, men and women who have been lulled into apathy but would now need to be whipped into a frenzy. More involved (and sending their own kin to war), they may well start asking awkward questions about Putin’s effectiveness.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/china-s-xi-poised-for-first-putin-meeting-since-ukraine-invasion

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-19/frustrated-and-snubbed-putin-is-running-out-of-options-at-home-and-in-ukraine

Expand full comment
202 more comments...

No posts