Predictions for 2025

And a review of my predictions for 2024

I always dread doing my annual predictions review post, because like most people, I don’t enjoy thinking about what I got wrong.

But when I reflect on what I originally wrote in “How to be less full of shit,” a predictions post is not supposed to be fun. What’s fun is to say stuff that’s interesting and maybe a little insightful and edgy, and then not ask too many questions about whether any of it was actually true. The point of making explicit predictions and then looking back on them is to temper that impulse a bit and to interrogate my own real views and levels of confidence.

The bad news is that after two years of improvement in my calibration, I messed up this year.