My 2024 predictions

Grading my 2023 predictions and looking ahead to the new year

I have been dreading the need to do my annual predictions post — so much so that I strongly considered not doing it this year — because I didn’t want to have to think about what I got wrong last year.

But when I reflect on what I originally wrote in “How to be less full of shit,” the point of a predictions post is that it’s not supposed to be fun. What’s fun is to say stuff that’s interesting and maybe a little insightful and edgy and then not ask too many questions about whether it was actually true. The point of making explicit predictions and then looking back on them is to temper that impulse a little bit and to interrogate your own real views and levels of confidence more clearly.

And the good news is I am getting better.

My first year’s predictions were terrible, but I got better in year two, and this year’s calibration is better yet. Still not great, but pretty good.