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Sarah B's avatar

I’m a researcher in biopharma, and some of my colleagues have speculated similarly: that the US should have a gigantic vaccine manufacturing suite on standby, ready for the next pandemic. It’s theoretically possible, and I like to think through what that might involve.

1. What type of vaccine are we preparing for, bc there are many different kinds! nucleic acids encased in lipid nanoparticles, like the Moderna and Pfizer covid vaccines? The type of vaccine that’s made inside chicken eggs, like the flu vaccine? A vaccine made of recombinant proteins? All of these have completely different manufacturing pipelines.

2. Are our manufacturing suites perpetually active, to keep the staff sharp and the equipment maintained? What are they producing during non-emergency time periods and who is paying for it?

3. Or do we mothball the suites and then fire them up during emergencies, creating new manufacturing teams as quickly as possible, whose first order of business would be to identify what equipment still functions since the last emergency?

4. Who is supervising this manufacturing effort? Governments? Pharma companies? Somebody else?

5. Will the vaccines produced here go through a standard regulatory process or an expedited one?

Those are the questions that come to mind for me.

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Tran Hung Dao's avatar

Looking outside of the understandably American-centric view of Matt's post, I've always been a bit amazed at how globally ominpresent this is.

During Australia's lockdowns earlier this year, I saw a quote that shutting down Sydney for 6 days cost as much money as buying front-of-the-queue vaccines for the entire country. Yet Australia showed no urgency about acquiring vaccines. (To the point where the PM is now much derided for saying "it's not a race".)

China took half a year or more to secure the additional funding to build additional factories for Sinovac, which allows them to make billions of doses a year. Just a few hundred million dollars, IIRC. (Leaving aside that Sinovac turned out to be less effective than hoped, but I doubt that was the reason for how long it took to get funding.)

Vietnam didn't even really try to acquire vaccines, seemingly relying on keeping the coronavirus out until 2022 when locally developed vaccines would be available. Then Delta swept in and their largest city was in complete lockdown for months with people unable to get food supplies.

It is well-known that Europe haggled on vaccine prices rather than putting a priority on expediency.

Again and again, in governments around the world it seems like EVERYONE went for penny-wise, pound-foolish. So it isn't really anything about the US or its weird Congressional-gridlock or polarisation or people not trusting Facebook or the CDC sucks or whatever other American-exceptionalism explanation you want to try to cook up.

So I guess I'm wondering...what the heck is even going on? Is this just a fundamental human nature thing? Is there nothing that can done in institutional design to try to counteract this?

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