This is driving the Canadians nuts (source: am a Canadian). On the other hand our main stock index (the TSX) is up .44% today so Canadian market participants don't believe him either.
The "ask" is supposedly that we're soft on border security so he'll slap us with tariffs (which would be very very bad for us since half our economy is trade with the US) until we mend our ways... but this implies there is something we could do at the border that would satisfy him, and it's not clear to me that there is.
Doesn't all of this make sense when you simply assume Trump is an idiot who only cares about himself? He'll do anything, say anything that will get him what he wants, which is purely in his own self interest. He's just luckier than any human being alive.
I allowed myself to hope that Republicans would be in favor of an "all of the above" approach to energy, that being pro-fossil fuel was part of an actual agenda of energy abundance. But even on the things they could be sensible about, they've chosen to undermine any goal except "spite the libs."
I’m predicting Dubya 2004, version 2.0 - mismanagement and stupidity catch up with him, and the real pain of right wing governance becomes apparent. Trump was fairly lucky in his first term - he avoided major crises in his first 3 years and backed off of stupid and impractical/unpopular policies at the last minute when he saw his approval ratings slip.
When he did get a major crisis in year 4, he managed to deftly spin it as a culture war issue, given many people were chafing under the COVID lockdowns. But those first 3 years provided the “nostalgia” that guided him to victory in ‘24.
But, in 20 years, just like with Dubya and the Iraq war of 2003, everyone will pretend to have never supported him.
The bigger puzzle is what Trump even cares about. He's a term limited almost 80 year old. Does he care if pro-life people hate him now? He obviously doesn't mind people hating him but he doesn't seem to have his own moral vision so what does he even want?
"His argument is that tariffs will not raise prices for American consumers, because exchange rates will adjust — the dollar will become more expensive, real consumer prices will be flat, and the Treasury will secure revenue. "
LOL, what. Tariffs will help American manufacturers by raising prices on imported goods while not raising prices on imported goods! Checkmate, libs!
Eventually there will need to be a reckoning that examines all corruptions on both sides including their children. My hope is that by that time AI will be able to link posts to ancestors. The generation that’s alive will see who did and said what. We can’t hide from history.
I watched the inauguration with remarkable serenity. It's going to be a long four years, yes. But there was an election, my team lost, and the other team gets to have its day. I hope Democrats will spend this time getting back to basics and telling our most unpopular activists to sit down and shut up, or pound sand, because they're hurting the party.
Performative "Resistance™" is not the way. That said, while I am not crying and throwing up with sadness, sorrow, fear, or anxiety, I do not wish Trump good health or long life. I am rooting for him to fail, because when he fails, America wins. And I am saying that as coldly and unemotionally as possible.
”Liberals read more, and conservatives watch more television. Republicans are more interested in conservative ideology, and Democrats are more interested in specific issue areas. This means that while the right of course has its own factionalisms, there’s not much of a market on the right for granular policy-focused debates and inquiries.”
The other kind of political correctness: one is not allowed to point out the facts that Republican voters have lower iq than Democratic voters.
I'll just stick with this prediction, there's one of two outcomes:
1. Trump needs to be loved so much that he actually governs mostly in line with public opinion, the economy does alright and he leaves office with >50% approval ratings.
2. He actually DOES go over the cliff in one way or another. Either he implements massive tariffs that increase prices, or he actually follows through with deporting millions and causes a recession in the Southwest, or some other thing, and then leaves office with W-like approval ratings.
I guess the third option is anywhere between those two extremes.
I believe Trump will get a honeymoon and start his term with >50% approval. But, it won't last, and by the time it's over, he'll finish way underwater, just like the last term.
Something that stuck with me from Ezra Klein's recent conversation with Chris Hayes is that Trump is terminally online and in his own bubble, even if he hate watches MSNBC along the way. He'll take and prioritize overwhelming adoration on his primary channels of engagement (X, Truth Social, Fox News, OAN, etc) over genuinely pursuing 50% approval. All of which leads him to be much more likely to go over the cliff, as you say, and trigger a major backlash, and none of which would make him unique compared to other recent presidencies (including his first term).
I have subjected myself to a few minutes of the inaugural speech. I don't even understand many of the things he is referring to, so I don't know what his actions will be.
Oh, but now I hear that he is going to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico and go back to the name Mt McKinley.
I will buy the first map from Rand McNally or National Geographic that says "Gulf of America". My guess is my money is safe.
Also, Denali is a fucking cool name - GM even named an SUV after it! No offense to McKinley, but I always thought this was one of the things DEI (or whatever prompted it) got right.
This is driving the Canadians nuts (source: am a Canadian). On the other hand our main stock index (the TSX) is up .44% today so Canadian market participants don't believe him either.
The "ask" is supposedly that we're soft on border security so he'll slap us with tariffs (which would be very very bad for us since half our economy is trade with the US) until we mend our ways... but this implies there is something we could do at the border that would satisfy him, and it's not clear to me that there is.
Doesn't all of this make sense when you simply assume Trump is an idiot who only cares about himself? He'll do anything, say anything that will get him what he wants, which is purely in his own self interest. He's just luckier than any human being alive.
Speaking of Trump's unpredictability, I was a little surprised by this executive order suspending permitting for offshore wind: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/temporary-withdrawal-of-all-areas-on-the-outer-continental-shelf-from-offshore-wind-leasing-and-review-of-the-federal-governments-leasing-and-permitting-practices-for-wind-projects/
I allowed myself to hope that Republicans would be in favor of an "all of the above" approach to energy, that being pro-fossil fuel was part of an actual agenda of energy abundance. But even on the things they could be sensible about, they've chosen to undermine any goal except "spite the libs."
I’m predicting Dubya 2004, version 2.0 - mismanagement and stupidity catch up with him, and the real pain of right wing governance becomes apparent. Trump was fairly lucky in his first term - he avoided major crises in his first 3 years and backed off of stupid and impractical/unpopular policies at the last minute when he saw his approval ratings slip.
When he did get a major crisis in year 4, he managed to deftly spin it as a culture war issue, given many people were chafing under the COVID lockdowns. But those first 3 years provided the “nostalgia” that guided him to victory in ‘24.
But, in 20 years, just like with Dubya and the Iraq war of 2003, everyone will pretend to have never supported him.
The orange one is a chaos monkey. The best you can hope for is that you're able to keep you and your loved ones safe.
The bigger puzzle is what Trump even cares about. He's a term limited almost 80 year old. Does he care if pro-life people hate him now? He obviously doesn't mind people hating him but he doesn't seem to have his own moral vision so what does he even want?
"His argument is that tariffs will not raise prices for American consumers, because exchange rates will adjust — the dollar will become more expensive, real consumer prices will be flat, and the Treasury will secure revenue. "
LOL, what. Tariffs will help American manufacturers by raising prices on imported goods while not raising prices on imported goods! Checkmate, libs!
Eventually there will need to be a reckoning that examines all corruptions on both sides including their children. My hope is that by that time AI will be able to link posts to ancestors. The generation that’s alive will see who did and said what. We can’t hide from history.
Let’s hope he needs lots of naps like his predecessor
1,461 days until America comes back.
I watched the inauguration with remarkable serenity. It's going to be a long four years, yes. But there was an election, my team lost, and the other team gets to have its day. I hope Democrats will spend this time getting back to basics and telling our most unpopular activists to sit down and shut up, or pound sand, because they're hurting the party.
Performative "Resistance™" is not the way. That said, while I am not crying and throwing up with sadness, sorrow, fear, or anxiety, I do not wish Trump good health or long life. I am rooting for him to fail, because when he fails, America wins. And I am saying that as coldly and unemotionally as possible.
”Liberals read more, and conservatives watch more television. Republicans are more interested in conservative ideology, and Democrats are more interested in specific issue areas. This means that while the right of course has its own factionalisms, there’s not much of a market on the right for granular policy-focused debates and inquiries.”
The other kind of political correctness: one is not allowed to point out the facts that Republican voters have lower iq than Democratic voters.
Problem is that while manifestly true it’s not exactly useful to point that last part out, one catching more flies with honey and all.
Well, the rambling has begun. Time to tune out…
An opinion piece about a real American hero, for anyone who needs a pick-me-up: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/20/opinion/martin-luther-king-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.qk4.G4RU.LJNQi6wfYgT1&smid=url-share
I respectfully disagree. We know exactly what Trump is going to do. He's going to:
1. Do what he can to increase his own personal wealth
2. Get his name and face in the news so people will talk about him, to prove to himself he's not a "loser"
3. Follow blindly along with whatever the last person who compliments him wants because he's desperate for affirmation
I'll just stick with this prediction, there's one of two outcomes:
1. Trump needs to be loved so much that he actually governs mostly in line with public opinion, the economy does alright and he leaves office with >50% approval ratings.
2. He actually DOES go over the cliff in one way or another. Either he implements massive tariffs that increase prices, or he actually follows through with deporting millions and causes a recession in the Southwest, or some other thing, and then leaves office with W-like approval ratings.
I guess the third option is anywhere between those two extremes.
I believe Trump will get a honeymoon and start his term with >50% approval. But, it won't last, and by the time it's over, he'll finish way underwater, just like the last term.
Something that stuck with me from Ezra Klein's recent conversation with Chris Hayes is that Trump is terminally online and in his own bubble, even if he hate watches MSNBC along the way. He'll take and prioritize overwhelming adoration on his primary channels of engagement (X, Truth Social, Fox News, OAN, etc) over genuinely pursuing 50% approval. All of which leads him to be much more likely to go over the cliff, as you say, and trigger a major backlash, and none of which would make him unique compared to other recent presidencies (including his first term).
He also seems to choose policies at random. Pro-H1B but also against automating the ports.
I have subjected myself to a few minutes of the inaugural speech. I don't even understand many of the things he is referring to, so I don't know what his actions will be.
Oh, but now I hear that he is going to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico and go back to the name Mt McKinley.
I will buy the first map from Rand McNally or National Geographic that says "Gulf of America". My guess is my money is safe.
Also, Denali is a fucking cool name - GM even named an SUV after it! No offense to McKinley, but I always thought this was one of the things DEI (or whatever prompted it) got right.
Denali beats McKinley, but Rainier beats Tacoma
Fair. All should be decided by internet vote. I look forward to hiking up Mounty McMountainFace someday!
Agreed.