I just fundamentally disagree he DeSantis has appropriate moral limits for American politics.
3 episodes particularly worry me in their nexus to unhealthy, dominating mind set and abuses of power
1) bussing asylum-seeking migrants across the country to locations not prepared to receive them as a headline grabbing propaganda tool.
2) Leading Florida to meaningfully punish Disney for their vocal dissent of “Don’t say gay”. This is clear to me retribution for political speech, a dangerous state imposition on a major media organization’s political speech.
3) Most worryingly, the cynical manipulation of an unsophisticated, largely minority population. - convicted felons to create voter fraud propaganda congruent with Trump’s big lie.
Seems to me he is only better than Trump because he is less obviously fascistic and more obviously a talented executive. But thats not actually better, it’s far more dangerous!
Matt, your column "Defending democracy needs appeals to material self-interest" implied what I might call the Yglesias Test of whether a political figure is actually substantively moderate on welfare-state issues - namely, what does this figure do with respect to Medicaid?
This Yglesias Test does a good job distinguishing who is a genuine moderate that would not attempt major social program cuts (e.g. Lisa Murkowski, John Kasich, Doug Ducey) and whose "populist" rhetoric is a cover for right-wing economic policy (e.g. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton). I also put Trump in that latter group - sure, he didn't ALSO try to cut Medicare, but he did attempt a major welfare-state rollback and that's pretty important!
DeSantis pretty clearly fails the Yglesias Test and I think that's a strong piece of evidence for Possibility #2. Jon Chait has also written about DeSantis' book, which basically expresses skepticism of democracy because democracies tend to have social programs. All this tells me DeSantis is basically Paul Ryan with more aggressive culture war messaging - and it will be important for the political press to convey clearly the economic policy stakes of his presidential aspirations.
Yes, he carried out publicized arrests of Black people to intimidate others into not voting, kidnaps vulnerable families and dumped them in another state to boost his ratings, intervened in redistricting to hyper gerrymander districts, and required professors and students to register their political opinions but what is really important is his thoughts on multilateral trade agreements. Seriously, was this blog a joke?
I agree with the general thrust of this piece - that we need to know DeSantis' position on major policy issues, but I'm disappointed it only mentions a couple areas domestic policy and domestic policy that is primarily the purview of Congress.
For example:
"If Republicans want to enact big tax cuts, they will need spending restraint. So to be Professionalized Trump, you would need to not only replicate aspects of Trumpism that disappointed GOP elites (i.e., moderate positioning on Medicare, not crimes) but actually challenge the longstanding Republican obsession with tax cuts.
If DeSantis actually does that, he’ll be a huge political superstar."
The fact of the matter is that DeSantis can't actually do that - the office of the President doesn't have that power or authority. The best he - like any President - can do is try to convince Congress to pass something he's willing to sign. And the same goes for Medicare, which he has little actual control over.
More important is how DeSantis would run the federal government, especially with regard to the shadow-legislation that is the administrative state. And, of course, there is foreign policy, which is a much bigger part of a President's actual job than anything mentioned in this piece.
Those are the two areas that will matter most as President.
It probably benefits RDS to not clearly stake out any policy positions on national issues. One of the big advantages that governors have over senators when they run for president is that while senators are constantly hung out to dry based on the votes they took, governors can float above the fray.
This is the reason I subscribe. Really, really good. Thank you. I felt the same way about Castro. And it IS time for DeSantis to put on his big boy pants. Every reporter, at every level, needs to ask him these policy questions.
I don’t often disagree with Matt but I think he is way off-beam in suggesting DeSantis didn’t do as well two weeks ago as people think, and his comparisons to other states. Unlike Mike DeWine and Brian Kemp, who ran ahead of really weak Senate GOP candidates, DeSantis ran three points ahead of (which is not really “just as well”) as Rubio, who himself crushed a fairly strong Democrat candidate. If you compare the results with Trump in 2020 to allow a consistent comparison, DeSantis beat him by 8.2%, far better than Abbott (2.7%) or Kemp, let alone Lombardo. And all this in a state that was purple until recently. Other than Sununu, I think DeSantis was clearly the outstanding GOP state-wide candidate this election cycle, and it really isn’t surprising as his performance was seen as amazingly good. It was.
DeSantis faces a real issue in Florida with respect to affordable housing and climate change. It is getting very difficult to get building insurance because of the high costs imposed by rebuilding following hurricanes. I believe Florida has created a high risk insurance pool but it is not optimal for many citizens. For all his fakery over the immigration issue, the blunt fact is that there is a lot of construction work going on right now by illegal immigrants and there appears to be a wink and a nod about enforcement. Sure they will try to fly/bus more people north but if they are in the construction traces, you can be sure those folks will stay in Florida.
The woke nonsense is ceasing to be a major issue and will be more easily deflected going forward. DeSantis has a Congressional and now Gubernatorial record by which he will be judged.
The judgement of those most affected by his Gubernatorial record is that it was good enough for a second term. And he improved his vote share versus Trump in 2020 in every county in the state.
While his voting record in Congress was deeply conservative, DeSantis seems to have good instincts in tacking towards the center and in using his power as governor to appear neutral and effective in addressing matters of broad public concern such as Covid and severe weather events. He is disciplined, smart and supremely self-confident.
His willingness to not only support but orchestrate stunts such as flying asylum seekers from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard and his undisguised glee in “owning the libs” suggests, however, excessive trust in his own political judgment. That confidence may prove to be his undoing -- he is well-known for keeping his own counsel and for a revolving cast of advisors. In this, he is similar to Trump; not surprisingly, both are also known to be reflexively vindictive and to have very few friends.
Trump has a feral intelligence, however, in understanding what his base wants and how to wind them up. DeSantis is far more of a construct who seems to have the personality, and image, of the man on a wedding cake. He is tightly wrapped in a way that Trump, lazy in all things, would never be. DeSantis will appeal to conservatives and some moderates as being more competent and less unhinged than Trump. He hopes to attract core Trump voters by being Trump without the drama. The problem, though, is that Trump voters like the drama; DeSantis appears uptight and a bit brittle next to Trump’s bombast.
After last week’s election, no Republican can feel too encouraged by the prospects for 2024. After taking a bruising in surviving the primaries, the Republican nominee may be holding a booby prize. Trump will take it all the way -- he has shown no willingness to protect the Republican party. DeSantis, however, may choose to sit this one out. He might prevail over a Trump dogged by investigations only to find Trump running as an independent. DeSantis will still be young in 2028 but losing in the 2024 primaries or general election would likely end any national ambitions he has. For now, I can see him keeping his powder dry, waiting for a Trump slip that would allow him to ride to the rescue.
Excellent article, Matt. When I began reading, I immediately thought about how DeSantis has blocked Medicaid in FL. Thank you for reminding us about how tied he was to Ryan. We completely agree we want to know much more about his policies. I don’t think I will ever board his train!!
policy’s fun and all, but this primary’s just gonna be 1 year of trump emasculating RDS and it’s gonna lit watching another conservative pundit golden boy piss all over himself
His judgement that less restrictive NPI's were more popular without being more harmful, steering clear of the anti-vaxxers and doing better at isolating nursing homes should count for something.
DeSantis almost certainly thinks he can square the circle of "tax cuts" vs. "budget balancing" by taking all the pain, punishment, and defunding out on Democrat voters. It's in line with his support of the Ryan plan, and why so many Republicans were attracted to it against political prudence: Rewarding your friends, punishing your "enemies".
It's also in line with how he's run Florida: Use government to punish disagreement, and reward silence or "loyalty". Connecting that to budget priorities is how you link Ryanism and Trumpism.
(Of course, the real political power of Trumpism lies in its vessel saying offensive things in an entertaining way, which DeSantis has no capability of doing. At least yet.)
He punished Disney and a professional Florida sports team for expressing an opinion, and passed a law punishing professors for doing the same. That is, in part, how he has governed.
You seem to know nothing at all about that. I implore you to educate yourself.
If you do know about it, and approve, move to some other country that better suits you. Freedom is clearly not for you.
By the same illogic, Viktor Orban is doing "performative acts" by auditing businessmen that speak out against him, shutting down universities that teach non-right-wing ideas, and denying government contracts to anyone in the opposition.
Ron DeSantis gives a message to all businesses in the state, big and little: Shut up and say nothing about anything the governor does. Accept your tax breaks and stay silent.
Or don't, and pay the price.
If you think that is "performative", acceptable, and perfectly compatible with democracy and rule of law, you know nothing about either.
"But that’s why you need to run the campaign and debate the policies."
Yeah, no. No one can put a gun to DeSantis's head and force him to "debate the policies" at least possibly until the general election debates, if then. Perhaps one can (fairly) admonish reporters for not more persistently (or at all!) asking the questions Matt is interested in, but DeSantis would be a fool to address them directly.
The Republican primary campaign of the next ~18 months will be run on Republican terms, not policy wonk terms. And that, of course, will be almost entirely policy-free.
With one exception, I think: abortion. Republican state legislators in Florida have already announced they will pursue a 6-week abortion ban. Pro-life advocates can't be happy with Florida's 15 week limit, which protects ~95% of abortions. What will DeSantis do? My guess is that primary politics will force him to be more radical and support something like the 6-week ban. If he doesn't, this is the one area where Trump can blast him; all he has to do is raise three fingers and say, "My Supreme Court."
In a masochistic, horrific for the nation way, this may be fun to watch.
I just fundamentally disagree he DeSantis has appropriate moral limits for American politics.
3 episodes particularly worry me in their nexus to unhealthy, dominating mind set and abuses of power
1) bussing asylum-seeking migrants across the country to locations not prepared to receive them as a headline grabbing propaganda tool.
2) Leading Florida to meaningfully punish Disney for their vocal dissent of “Don’t say gay”. This is clear to me retribution for political speech, a dangerous state imposition on a major media organization’s political speech.
3) Most worryingly, the cynical manipulation of an unsophisticated, largely minority population. - convicted felons to create voter fraud propaganda congruent with Trump’s big lie.
Seems to me he is only better than Trump because he is less obviously fascistic and more obviously a talented executive. But thats not actually better, it’s far more dangerous!
Matt, your column "Defending democracy needs appeals to material self-interest" implied what I might call the Yglesias Test of whether a political figure is actually substantively moderate on welfare-state issues - namely, what does this figure do with respect to Medicaid?
This Yglesias Test does a good job distinguishing who is a genuine moderate that would not attempt major social program cuts (e.g. Lisa Murkowski, John Kasich, Doug Ducey) and whose "populist" rhetoric is a cover for right-wing economic policy (e.g. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton). I also put Trump in that latter group - sure, he didn't ALSO try to cut Medicare, but he did attempt a major welfare-state rollback and that's pretty important!
DeSantis pretty clearly fails the Yglesias Test and I think that's a strong piece of evidence for Possibility #2. Jon Chait has also written about DeSantis' book, which basically expresses skepticism of democracy because democracies tend to have social programs. All this tells me DeSantis is basically Paul Ryan with more aggressive culture war messaging - and it will be important for the political press to convey clearly the economic policy stakes of his presidential aspirations.
Yes, he carried out publicized arrests of Black people to intimidate others into not voting, kidnaps vulnerable families and dumped them in another state to boost his ratings, intervened in redistricting to hyper gerrymander districts, and required professors and students to register their political opinions but what is really important is his thoughts on multilateral trade agreements. Seriously, was this blog a joke?
I agree with the general thrust of this piece - that we need to know DeSantis' position on major policy issues, but I'm disappointed it only mentions a couple areas domestic policy and domestic policy that is primarily the purview of Congress.
For example:
"If Republicans want to enact big tax cuts, they will need spending restraint. So to be Professionalized Trump, you would need to not only replicate aspects of Trumpism that disappointed GOP elites (i.e., moderate positioning on Medicare, not crimes) but actually challenge the longstanding Republican obsession with tax cuts.
If DeSantis actually does that, he’ll be a huge political superstar."
The fact of the matter is that DeSantis can't actually do that - the office of the President doesn't have that power or authority. The best he - like any President - can do is try to convince Congress to pass something he's willing to sign. And the same goes for Medicare, which he has little actual control over.
More important is how DeSantis would run the federal government, especially with regard to the shadow-legislation that is the administrative state. And, of course, there is foreign policy, which is a much bigger part of a President's actual job than anything mentioned in this piece.
Those are the two areas that will matter most as President.
It probably benefits RDS to not clearly stake out any policy positions on national issues. One of the big advantages that governors have over senators when they run for president is that while senators are constantly hung out to dry based on the votes they took, governors can float above the fray.
This is the reason I subscribe. Really, really good. Thank you. I felt the same way about Castro. And it IS time for DeSantis to put on his big boy pants. Every reporter, at every level, needs to ask him these policy questions.
I don’t often disagree with Matt but I think he is way off-beam in suggesting DeSantis didn’t do as well two weeks ago as people think, and his comparisons to other states. Unlike Mike DeWine and Brian Kemp, who ran ahead of really weak Senate GOP candidates, DeSantis ran three points ahead of (which is not really “just as well”) as Rubio, who himself crushed a fairly strong Democrat candidate. If you compare the results with Trump in 2020 to allow a consistent comparison, DeSantis beat him by 8.2%, far better than Abbott (2.7%) or Kemp, let alone Lombardo. And all this in a state that was purple until recently. Other than Sununu, I think DeSantis was clearly the outstanding GOP state-wide candidate this election cycle, and it really isn’t surprising as his performance was seen as amazingly good. It was.
Matt's last line:
"If DeSantis actually does that, he’ll be a huge political superstar. But will he? I’m incredibly skeptical."
"huge political superstar"!!!
I don't understand Matt's skepticism. Doesn't DeSantis want to be a huge political superstar? Professionalized Trump is the obvious play,
What stops him? Principle? Long-held beliefs? House votes from years ago? Stupidity?
DeSantis faces a real issue in Florida with respect to affordable housing and climate change. It is getting very difficult to get building insurance because of the high costs imposed by rebuilding following hurricanes. I believe Florida has created a high risk insurance pool but it is not optimal for many citizens. For all his fakery over the immigration issue, the blunt fact is that there is a lot of construction work going on right now by illegal immigrants and there appears to be a wink and a nod about enforcement. Sure they will try to fly/bus more people north but if they are in the construction traces, you can be sure those folks will stay in Florida.
The woke nonsense is ceasing to be a major issue and will be more easily deflected going forward. DeSantis has a Congressional and now Gubernatorial record by which he will be judged.
The judgement of those most affected by his Gubernatorial record is that it was good enough for a second term. And he improved his vote share versus Trump in 2020 in every county in the state.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-florida-governor.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=TrendingRace
While his voting record in Congress was deeply conservative, DeSantis seems to have good instincts in tacking towards the center and in using his power as governor to appear neutral and effective in addressing matters of broad public concern such as Covid and severe weather events. He is disciplined, smart and supremely self-confident.
His willingness to not only support but orchestrate stunts such as flying asylum seekers from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard and his undisguised glee in “owning the libs” suggests, however, excessive trust in his own political judgment. That confidence may prove to be his undoing -- he is well-known for keeping his own counsel and for a revolving cast of advisors. In this, he is similar to Trump; not surprisingly, both are also known to be reflexively vindictive and to have very few friends.
Trump has a feral intelligence, however, in understanding what his base wants and how to wind them up. DeSantis is far more of a construct who seems to have the personality, and image, of the man on a wedding cake. He is tightly wrapped in a way that Trump, lazy in all things, would never be. DeSantis will appeal to conservatives and some moderates as being more competent and less unhinged than Trump. He hopes to attract core Trump voters by being Trump without the drama. The problem, though, is that Trump voters like the drama; DeSantis appears uptight and a bit brittle next to Trump’s bombast.
After last week’s election, no Republican can feel too encouraged by the prospects for 2024. After taking a bruising in surviving the primaries, the Republican nominee may be holding a booby prize. Trump will take it all the way -- he has shown no willingness to protect the Republican party. DeSantis, however, may choose to sit this one out. He might prevail over a Trump dogged by investigations only to find Trump running as an independent. DeSantis will still be young in 2028 but losing in the 2024 primaries or general election would likely end any national ambitions he has. For now, I can see him keeping his powder dry, waiting for a Trump slip that would allow him to ride to the rescue.
Excellent article, Matt. When I began reading, I immediately thought about how DeSantis has blocked Medicaid in FL. Thank you for reminding us about how tied he was to Ryan. We completely agree we want to know much more about his policies. I don’t think I will ever board his train!!
SallyJones
policy’s fun and all, but this primary’s just gonna be 1 year of trump emasculating RDS and it’s gonna lit watching another conservative pundit golden boy piss all over himself
Virtuoso column. You could unpack it into several. Discuss of valence of “conservative” worth hammering
His judgement that less restrictive NPI's were more popular without being more harmful, steering clear of the anti-vaxxers and doing better at isolating nursing homes should count for something.
Also: The vaccine rollout in Florida was very well run.
Regarding the last part of the article:
DeSantis almost certainly thinks he can square the circle of "tax cuts" vs. "budget balancing" by taking all the pain, punishment, and defunding out on Democrat voters. It's in line with his support of the Ryan plan, and why so many Republicans were attracted to it against political prudence: Rewarding your friends, punishing your "enemies".
It's also in line with how he's run Florida: Use government to punish disagreement, and reward silence or "loyalty". Connecting that to budget priorities is how you link Ryanism and Trumpism.
(Of course, the real political power of Trumpism lies in its vessel saying offensive things in an entertaining way, which DeSantis has no capability of doing. At least yet.)
You seem to know nothing at all about how DeSantis has governed Florida.
He punished Disney and a professional Florida sports team for expressing an opinion, and passed a law punishing professors for doing the same. That is, in part, how he has governed.
You seem to know nothing at all about that. I implore you to educate yourself.
If you do know about it, and approve, move to some other country that better suits you. Freedom is clearly not for you.
Performative acts that affected the polity not at all.
Nonsense.
By the same illogic, Viktor Orban is doing "performative acts" by auditing businessmen that speak out against him, shutting down universities that teach non-right-wing ideas, and denying government contracts to anyone in the opposition.
Ron DeSantis gives a message to all businesses in the state, big and little: Shut up and say nothing about anything the governor does. Accept your tax breaks and stay silent.
Or don't, and pay the price.
If you think that is "performative", acceptable, and perfectly compatible with democracy and rule of law, you know nothing about either.
Orban's actions are merely approving what the legislature has demanded? I mean, I don't know much about Hungarian law, so maybe that's true?
"But that’s why you need to run the campaign and debate the policies."
Yeah, no. No one can put a gun to DeSantis's head and force him to "debate the policies" at least possibly until the general election debates, if then. Perhaps one can (fairly) admonish reporters for not more persistently (or at all!) asking the questions Matt is interested in, but DeSantis would be a fool to address them directly.
The Republican primary campaign of the next ~18 months will be run on Republican terms, not policy wonk terms. And that, of course, will be almost entirely policy-free.
With one exception, I think: abortion. Republican state legislators in Florida have already announced they will pursue a 6-week abortion ban. Pro-life advocates can't be happy with Florida's 15 week limit, which protects ~95% of abortions. What will DeSantis do? My guess is that primary politics will force him to be more radical and support something like the 6-week ban. If he doesn't, this is the one area where Trump can blast him; all he has to do is raise three fingers and say, "My Supreme Court."
In a masochistic, horrific for the nation way, this may be fun to watch.