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Richard Gadsden's avatar

It is impossible to draw a proportional map under first-past-the-post if you want it to be proportional when one party wins a very large majority of the vote.

If one party is winning more than two-thirds of the vote, then the minority party needs to have very high concentrations of votes to win any seats at all. Consider it nationally - a D+33 national result would make every single district blue - TX-13 is the reddest district in the nation and it's "only" R+33. An R+33 national result would result in 17 districts staying Democratic (in order of PVI: FL-24, GA-05, MA-07, NY-09, CA-34, CA-44, NJ-10, NY-08, CA-12, CA-37, NY-05, IL-07, NY-07, CA-13, PA-03, NY-13, NY-15). I'm using Cook PVI.

Note that only three of those 17 Democratic districts are in states where the boundaries are drawn by a GOP legislature (FL-24, GA-05 and PA-03) - they're not really the result of "packing", but of the intense concentration of Democratic votes in the most urban areas, and the most African-American areas - unless I've missed one, these are all majority-minority districts and all but NJ-10 (Newark) are in the inner core of cities big enough to have multiple congressional districts.

A proportional set of boundaries would have 145 districts at least this Republican and 145 at least this Democratic. That's utterly impossible.

The most partisan district in the nation is NY-15 - D+44. If the Republicans won that seat purely on the national vote, that would be an R+44 election; that's a 72-28 national generic ballot. Under a proportional system, there should be 121 districts at least that partisan, and the most partisan district should be something like D+99.8 (and equally one at R+99.8)

Within the constraints of single-member districts of equal size that cannot cross state boundaries, you cannot get proportionality outside of a relatively narrow band around 50-50. Fortunately, US election results are almost always in a relatively narrow band around 50-50.

Require proportional results (to within a margin of error of something like 5%, ie it can be off by no more than one seat in any state that isn't California or Texas) for any statewide result where no party exceeds 60% of the vote statewide, and accept that the system will inflate statewide results above that level in terms of representation.

Massachussetts was 75-21 in 2020 to the Democrats, of course they won all nine seats.

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Weary Land's avatar

I just want to throw this out there for informational purposes:

The supreme court's 2019 ruling on gerrymandering is very misunderstood. The common summary of it was that the supreme court said that political gerrymandering was ok. What they actually said is that it's bad but they didn't want to make a standard to judge what is and isn't gerrymandering. However, they were very explicit that if someone came up with a standard, they would enforce it.

In particular, they were very clear that congress could come up with this standard because the constitution reads: "The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; **but Congress may at any time make or alter such Regulations,** except as to the Place of chusing Senators." The supreme court decided that drawing districts fell under "manner", so congress could set a standard that states had to follow.

Now, one dirty little secret is that many (most?) states already have requirements on districts, but they're routinely ignored. For example, the Pennsylvania constitution states "Unless **absolutely necessary** no county, city, incorporated town, borough, township or ward shall be divided in forming either a [state] senatorial or [state] representative district." (Article II section 16.) If you look at, say, PA state senate districts, they divide a lot more county lines than necessary. However, almost no one bothers to challenge maps under existing standards! It's insane. People want the supreme court to intervene with a new standard when not bothering to use the tools that already exist. Other seriously gerrymandered states (NC, WI, etc.) have similar laws, but again, no one bothers to use them. WTF?

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