How to know what politicians really think

Plus AOC vs. Mamdani, the DC mayor’s race, and plot vs. story

Had a few questions about the DC mayor’s race, so I just wanted to aggregate my answers together at the top and say that over and above my serious doubts about Janeese Lewis George’s positions on crime¹ and education,² there is a clear affirmative case for Kenyan McDuffie. I disagree with some of his takes on traffic cameras and historic preservation, but where I really agree with him is his correct diagnosis of the actual specific situation facing the city right now. We in DC were hit unusually hard by Covid because the federal government was much slower than the private sector to resume in-person work.

And then, just when the Trump administration curtailed remote work, it hammered the city’s economy with DOGE. This is having all kinds of downstream adverse consequences for the city’s restaurants and other businesses and taking a toll on working-class people. McDuffie is doing an excellent job of understanding that this is the problem we are facing and that the solution has to be a city government that is focused on reviving private-sector economic growth. These are issues specific to Washington, while George is essentially copy-and-pasting a progressive playbook out of New York or Boston, which are cities facing very different circumstances. I’ve also been disappointed to see many local YIMBY groups endorse as if we are replaying the New York mayor’s race, which featured a socialist who favored upzoning facing off against Andrew Cuomo, a “moderate” NIMBY backed by all the building trade unions.

The actual election that DC is having features two candidates, both of whom are proposing large changes to the comprehensive plan and the city’s land-use framework. George has offered a higher target number of new units of housing as part of a comprehensive pattern of saying yes to every interest group demand from every quarter, but is also proposing many different large regulatory-burden increases that will make new housing investment impossible. McDuffie’s pro-growth housing proposals are grounded in an overall pro-growth platform that I think might actually succeed because, again, he is paying attention to what the actual situation is — job losses, building closures, and capital flight — and thus is trying to solve real problems.

The Digital Entomologist: A couple weeks ago Matt said that politicians who need to BS their voters should let him know their true policy objectives so he can help them. I guess a sort of Irving Kristol’s 4 truths type of thing. Is there a way, in general, to discover a politician’s true policy objectives as just a regular voter who is interested in finding them? Or do you have be in the back rooms and have deep sources?

It is extremely hard to tell what politicians really think, not only because it is generally hard to truly know the mind and soul of another human being, but also because most politicians don’t really think that way. A good politician will have a couple of issues he cares a lot about and works hard on and is very knowledgeable about, but then mostly passes through life addressing things either on the basis of going along with his colleagues or else some specific consideration related to politics in his home state or home district.

I don’t think it would occur to the vast majority of members of Congress to seek out factual information about the climate impact of liquefied-natural-gas exports and develop an accurate opinion about it.