I understand that asking for a MORE detailed demographic breakdown of Hispanic voters is kinda missing the point, but I would be curious to see some data on this group. I think the Democratic view is that most Hispanic voters are first/second generation Americans, with many extended family members who are here illegally (and therefore they should want liberal immigration policies). There are also Hispanic families that have been here for many generations (in some cases since the land was part of Spain) and who do not feel any particular kinship with recent arrivals. Does anyone know of a good source that breaks down this voter bloc by how many generations removed from their ancestral countries Hispanic voters are?
It's been increasingly apparent to me that although it's understandable why Democrats defend their margins with minority voters so jealously, isn't it, like... objectively a bad thing?
We shouldn't WANT voting to be racially polarized.
Of course there is a reluctance to "give up" any votes, but playing with this idea does open possibilities of a broader coalition like Matt talks about here. If you gain three white voters for every two black voters you lose that is good for Democratic electoral prospects and, theoretically, intuitively, declining racial polarization.
Edit: And to clarify and to ride on the article's back a bit, I don't mean "craft a platform that is a little bit racist so white guys like it more," I mean just don't sweat demographics and craft a message that is popular with more or less everybody, and that could be your end result.
Cis hetero white males and non-binary mixed-race people of color are completely different species. Their physiologies require that they breathe different atmospheric gases. They require gravity to pull in different directions. How could they possibly ever have a single political preference in common?
I had a good friend who came to the US for school from Jordan. She was a Trump supporter because she really truly thought he would solve the war in Gaza. I told her a million times he could not be trusted. We actually grew apart because of it.
Like my friend from Jordan, first and second-generation Hispanic voters likely come from countries where corruption is just a part of life. They viewed Trump as a successful businessman who wanted to give the middle finger to politicians, who are inherently corrupt. It didn't help that Biden and his aids turned him into a Great Wizard of Oz situation.
Transparency and accountability in governance might be a worthwhile platform to explore.
Yet somehow Republicans are succeeding at bringing public criticism to the net worth of politicians like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. It's pretty baffling. I think people see authenticity in Trump even when he lies. They think he's lying to do what needs to be done. Like, he's playing the game on their behalf. That's what my friend thought.
Thank you for explaining about this report and linking to it. I'd love to read more of this insider-explaining.
I only think politics is only boring when you can't orient yourself to it.
I tell my k-12 students this all the time if they complain about their history homework. I say, "History gets way more interesting when you get to the age where you are the one making it." Reading about past presidents is really boring until you can vote for future presidents, or you get to the age where technically, YOU could be the president.
Similarly, I find policy really boring when I don't know enough to engage with it.
Off-topic, but I never followed up on my promise to hold another Slow Boring local meetup in SoCal. Would the second half of June, probably a weekend, work for you?
Tom Hitchner, Marc Robbins, Lisa C, Kenny, Bo if you're still around, what say you?
Awarru, I seem to remember you were in SoCal at some point (you mentioned Army training?), are you still in the area?
Anyone else?
Are you all around in the second half of June? If so, preference for LA vs. Orange County?
I live in LA and am interested in a meetup in the second half of June! But don't plan around me, as I have a 3.5-year-old, which makes it difficult to commit to anything.
> In 2016, for example, Trump really did do a lot worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics...
What source are you relying on for this claim? Latino Decisions claimed this at the time, but no other source agreed with them. They claimed that their methodology was superior to other pollsters but I don't think there is any corroborating evidence to suggest that they were correct.
"To the extent that there’s a lesson here, it isn’t anything about 23 year-olds or people who don’t follow the news, it’s just that you should try to make decisions that make people happy." Therein lies the crux of the matter. Democrats need to stop obsessing about identity politics and marginal groups, and aim their policies at winning over the great plurality of us regardless of gender, color, creed, ethnicity, LGTBQ status or any other label.
While the Trump regime is absolutely terrible, Oregon and California are run by Democrats but are not shining examples of good governance. I own a small property in Portland that I had rented out, and the last tenant absolutely wrecked the place. Because the leaders of Portland decided to make the city super friendly to tenants it took forever to get him evicted. And even when the court agreed he should be evicted, I could still not take possession of the property because we had to go on a long waiting list for the sheriff to visit. And even now when considering finding a new tenant, my hands are tied by Portland's business unfriendly laws that don't allow one to reject applicants based on low credit scores or bad history. It's this kind of thing that puts Democrats in a bad light.
Have you attended any town halls? Are other people in the city trying to petition to change these rules? It seems the only way to make changes sometimes is so punish people electorally or with our money. It sucks, as someone who has rented property before, it's definitely never easy but done states definitely make it harder.
This report answered a question I had about turnout. Black women turnout dropped 1%, black men dropped 2%. This was an election where the Democrats had a black woman on the top of the ballot.
Democrats need to realize they don't have any idea what's going on with identity politics. There needs to be someone in every meeting where it comes up who says "we don't have any idea how this works. We're like a caveman trying to operate a jetliner. We need to stop doing work where we don't know what we're doing, and instead work on other things."
We agree that the Democratic Party has focused too much on Race, Demographics and cultural concerns of small groups. I would like to see the various constituencies come together and focus on things almost everyone desires. Affordable housing, successful schools, food prices, safe neighborhoods, Respecting the Constitution and our Laws are a start. Then add Patriotic Songs like “America the Beautiful.” Videos can include diverse people working together and sharing activities.
Now couple this analysis with the hierarchy or “progressive stack” that reflects the progressive’s priorities, world view, and policy decisions when they actually govern.
Ok but I want Matt to grind the axe
The last section of this post really sums up the overall theme / path forward and describes American voters perfectly.
I appreciate that you did a real post on a national holiday.
I understand that asking for a MORE detailed demographic breakdown of Hispanic voters is kinda missing the point, but I would be curious to see some data on this group. I think the Democratic view is that most Hispanic voters are first/second generation Americans, with many extended family members who are here illegally (and therefore they should want liberal immigration policies). There are also Hispanic families that have been here for many generations (in some cases since the land was part of Spain) and who do not feel any particular kinship with recent arrivals. Does anyone know of a good source that breaks down this voter bloc by how many generations removed from their ancestral countries Hispanic voters are?
It's been increasingly apparent to me that although it's understandable why Democrats defend their margins with minority voters so jealously, isn't it, like... objectively a bad thing?
We shouldn't WANT voting to be racially polarized.
Of course there is a reluctance to "give up" any votes, but playing with this idea does open possibilities of a broader coalition like Matt talks about here. If you gain three white voters for every two black voters you lose that is good for Democratic electoral prospects and, theoretically, intuitively, declining racial polarization.
Edit: And to clarify and to ride on the article's back a bit, I don't mean "craft a platform that is a little bit racist so white guys like it more," I mean just don't sweat demographics and craft a message that is popular with more or less everybody, and that could be your end result.
Hey, Charlie Rangel died. Most of youse were born about six months ago, so maybe you're not familiar with the name: Rangel was Harlem's representative to Congress for about two decades longer than forever. Remarkably popular in South Korea. https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-05-27/national/politics/Charles-Rangel-decorated-Korean-War-veteran-dies-at-94/2316287
Cis hetero white males and non-binary mixed-race people of color are completely different species. Their physiologies require that they breathe different atmospheric gases. They require gravity to pull in different directions. How could they possibly ever have a single political preference in common?
Both like sex and drugs and rock & roll.
I think Matt makes good points here.
I had a good friend who came to the US for school from Jordan. She was a Trump supporter because she really truly thought he would solve the war in Gaza. I told her a million times he could not be trusted. We actually grew apart because of it.
Like my friend from Jordan, first and second-generation Hispanic voters likely come from countries where corruption is just a part of life. They viewed Trump as a successful businessman who wanted to give the middle finger to politicians, who are inherently corrupt. It didn't help that Biden and his aids turned him into a Great Wizard of Oz situation.
Transparency and accountability in governance might be a worthwhile platform to explore.
I want to agree with you, but do you see how your last paragraph directly contradicts the previous ones?
If people cared about transparency and accountability, they would never have elected Trump.
Yet somehow Republicans are succeeding at bringing public criticism to the net worth of politicians like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. It's pretty baffling. I think people see authenticity in Trump even when he lies. They think he's lying to do what needs to be done. Like, he's playing the game on their behalf. That's what my friend thought.
Hey question --
The report says, "Catalist offers analysis at more specific levels for academic research, media, progressive causes and Democratic campaigns."
Do Republican analysts use this report too? If not, then what DO they use?
Thank you for explaining about this report and linking to it. I'd love to read more of this insider-explaining.
I only think politics is only boring when you can't orient yourself to it.
I tell my k-12 students this all the time if they complain about their history homework. I say, "History gets way more interesting when you get to the age where you are the one making it." Reading about past presidents is really boring until you can vote for future presidents, or you get to the age where technically, YOU could be the president.
Similarly, I find policy really boring when I don't know enough to engage with it.
Hi everyone,
Off-topic, but I never followed up on my promise to hold another Slow Boring local meetup in SoCal. Would the second half of June, probably a weekend, work for you?
Tom Hitchner, Marc Robbins, Lisa C, Kenny, Bo if you're still around, what say you?
Awarru, I seem to remember you were in SoCal at some point (you mentioned Army training?), are you still in the area?
Anyone else?
Are you all around in the second half of June? If so, preference for LA vs. Orange County?
Thank you 😊
I live in LA and am interested in a meetup in the second half of June! But don't plan around me, as I have a 3.5-year-old, which makes it difficult to commit to anything.
> In 2016, for example, Trump really did do a lot worse than Mitt Romney with Hispanics...
What source are you relying on for this claim? Latino Decisions claimed this at the time, but no other source agreed with them. They claimed that their methodology was superior to other pollsters but I don't think there is any corroborating evidence to suggest that they were correct.
"To the extent that there’s a lesson here, it isn’t anything about 23 year-olds or people who don’t follow the news, it’s just that you should try to make decisions that make people happy." Therein lies the crux of the matter. Democrats need to stop obsessing about identity politics and marginal groups, and aim their policies at winning over the great plurality of us regardless of gender, color, creed, ethnicity, LGTBQ status or any other label.
While the Trump regime is absolutely terrible, Oregon and California are run by Democrats but are not shining examples of good governance. I own a small property in Portland that I had rented out, and the last tenant absolutely wrecked the place. Because the leaders of Portland decided to make the city super friendly to tenants it took forever to get him evicted. And even when the court agreed he should be evicted, I could still not take possession of the property because we had to go on a long waiting list for the sheriff to visit. And even now when considering finding a new tenant, my hands are tied by Portland's business unfriendly laws that don't allow one to reject applicants based on low credit scores or bad history. It's this kind of thing that puts Democrats in a bad light.
Have you attended any town halls? Are other people in the city trying to petition to change these rules? It seems the only way to make changes sometimes is so punish people electorally or with our money. It sucks, as someone who has rented property before, it's definitely never easy but done states definitely make it harder.
Sell the rental property and move. Vote with your capital and feet.
This report answered a question I had about turnout. Black women turnout dropped 1%, black men dropped 2%. This was an election where the Democrats had a black woman on the top of the ballot.
Democrats need to realize they don't have any idea what's going on with identity politics. There needs to be someone in every meeting where it comes up who says "we don't have any idea how this works. We're like a caveman trying to operate a jetliner. We need to stop doing work where we don't know what we're doing, and instead work on other things."
We agree that the Democratic Party has focused too much on Race, Demographics and cultural concerns of small groups. I would like to see the various constituencies come together and focus on things almost everyone desires. Affordable housing, successful schools, food prices, safe neighborhoods, Respecting the Constitution and our Laws are a start. Then add Patriotic Songs like “America the Beautiful.” Videos can include diverse people working together and sharing activities.
Now couple this analysis with the hierarchy or “progressive stack” that reflects the progressive’s priorities, world view, and policy decisions when they actually govern.