Thanks for being upfront with your predictions and recognizing you were wrong (in a great way). More pundits should follow your lead, it would lead to a much healthier discourse.
Sucks that Johnson looks like he will squeak out a victory. But ecstatic that WI seems to have avoided the state government super majority and the veto is intact. Can we get an extra emphasis on ending gerrymandering the next time we have the trifecta? It's killing us in Wisconsin and it clearly shows in the House.
I am thrilled with the outcome of the election. It was a repudiation of the Trump wing of the Republican Party and a win for regular Republicans. Seeing DeSantis, Rubio, Kemp and Abbot win with ease while the wackos -- Masters, Oz, Lake, Mastriano, et al -- lost badly is an encouraging sign. Trump's recent comments about DeSantis had either no effect or a positive effect -- DeSantis won by 20 points and improved on his performance 4 years ago.
It also reduces the chance of a Trump comeback. The GOP doesn't have to be as afraid of him as they have been. I've long held that he only won because the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton in 2016. She is the only candidate he could be beaten.
It's a fun time to see various interest groups take victory laps and/or assign blame without a whole lot of evidence either way, but I think this election shows the whole "LOCAL POLITICS ARE DEAD, EVERYTHING IS NATIONAL!!1!!1" narrative has been proven to be a bit overblown. We've got a lot of results driven by local/regional issues and beliefs!
As I (a random big city normcore lib) see it, the following things are objectively true:
- The appetite for Trumpist candidates is limited to the most conservative districts in America, and Republicans need a better plan for swing districts. As someone who was involuntarily subjected to completely unhinged ads from Hung Cao on the local sports radio station, this is a good thing.
- In the areas where crime is a tangible concern, it hurt dems / progressives. It probably cost them 2-3 seats in NY, and the pro-criminal candidates are losing in San Francisco.
- Crime as a general specter / vibes issue in other places flopped.
- Illegal immigration as a swing voter issue flopped.
- Dems running as centrists in conservative places did exceedingly well. Dems would do well to embrace Laura Kelly / Jared Golden / Sharice Davids thought when defending majorities.
- Seriously its weird we don't hear more in the national press about the dems crushing fundamentals in the heartland. I'd like to hear more about their secret sauce!
- I think Biden's leadership on pro labor issues has been dramatically underated in important industrial states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Dems should talk about labor victories more!
- This Republican led house with a razor thin majority trying to corral all the kooks and weirdos is going to be genuinely hysterical.
It's kinda nice when candidate quality and policy quality matter. If I were Republicans, I'd try to be more center boring. In many particular cases, Dems should lean into that even more too. Things, especially boring ones, will get done.
I'd like to comment on the GOP overperformance in NY as I suspect once all the votes are counted, the area of the country where GOP will have overperformed the most will be Long Island. As I live in Nassau County Long Island, I feel like I can give some "on the ground" observations that help explain why (Caveat. These are anecdotes and my own observations. I'm the first person to trash these New York Times trips to Trump country that talk to an old man in a diner in rural America who somehow is the "voice" of real America. Or worse, when they speak to an "average joe" citizen, and it turns out this "average joe" is leader of a political activist group. Nonetheless, given we now have solid election results, I think some of my observations may have value).
The number one thing to keep in mind about Long Island is that it's the original "white flight" suburb. Look up the history of Levittown (the first modern planned community). More than northern NJ, Westchester or Fairfield County, Long Island is the place where white residents have moved to in order to "get away" from big bad New York City. Yes, to a certain degree, this describes all NYC suburbs (heck all suburbs). But I've lived in CT and have family in NJ and can't begin to tell you how much that vibe is stronger in Long Island. When I moved to Nassau County in 2010, it wasn't just that it was striking that I met person after person who had never been to NYC outside of a school field trip but would say it with a point of pride. Typical answer would be "why would I ever go to NYC. Such a dirty gross place" (again this is at a time when crime was rapidly falling).
What does this all have to do with GOP overperformance in Long Island? There is not a region or place in America more primed for a "crime is out of control" and specifically a "crime in NYC is out of control" then Long Island. It's a catnip political message. Almost every Zeldin add I saw was security cam footage of assaults and thefts...disproportionately in the NYC subway.
Given there will also likely be general overperformance of GOP in NY, I think it's worth pointing out that a big factor is not just focus on crime, but the disproportionate amount of coverage crime in NYC gets in media and cable news. A person voting in Oklahoma may watch and see all these reports of "NYC crime is out of control" and get shake they're in alarm. But that same person may also ultimately decide this shouldn't have any bearing on their vote for Governor (I'm using Oklahoma as my example because of that moment in the Oklahoma governor debate when the D candidate brought up that Oklahoma was actually wildly more dangerous than NYC and it seems as though Stitt genuinely didn't believe it). But if you live in NY, crime in NYC seems much more relevant. Even if you live in Buffalo, a voter will (correctly note) that the governor has at least some control or say in what crime is like in NYC.
Lastly on the crime question. I can't begin to tell you how terrible it is that Mayor Adams seems to be determined to boost the worst Fox News stereotypes of NYC crime is and how this likely factored into the results. Two things can be true, crime (And perhaps more perinatally visible homelessness) are up and crime is still much lower than it was in the 90s. When Mayor Adams says crime is worse than it's ever been even when he was a beat cop, it's just such a wildly irresponsible thing for him to say. Especially as his city is relies on tourism and people coming for the leisure options for tax revenue (something that will be more important with WFH).
Again, definitely anecdote and observations of just one person. Happy to amend once real voting data comes out and someone like David Shorr can give us more expert data analysis. But thought it worth sharing.
Aside from the box-watching nuts in Arizona over the last few weeks, has there been any real reporting of bad polling place shenanigans? After a decent amount of hand-wringing about pollworker safety, we had an utterly and completely normal night at my ward. No need to frown at the odd MAGA-hat electioneering troll, not a single rejected absentee.
80% as many ballots cast as total names in the poll book (i.e., pre-registered voters), which I thought was pretty neat.
It can both be true that the Republicans underperformed *and* that they will capture both the House and the Senate. I'd like to think that they would be chastened by their relatively poor performance and not overreach but that seems to go against their ethos and, sad to say as a loyal Democrat, it would be counter to what my party did after such a "chastening" underperformance. You know, way way back in 2020 when they expected to do much better though still squeaked to control of both houses only to then decide that Biden should be FDR and their party had a mandate to pass huge, transformative legislation.
If they do squeak through, I expect the Republicans to do no less.
This was also incredibly good news for 2024. First, the likelihood of Republicans being able to overturn a Biden win went way, way down due to political factors and who actually won/lost elections. Second, the economy will most likely look even better in Nov 2024, even if there is a small recession in 2023. Third, the incumbent president almost always does significantly better than their midterm result. And fourth, this sets up a potentially much more bruising primary battle between Desantis and Trump. I can't image Trump losing a primary campaign without at least torpedoing the next presidential election if not inflicting even more damage on Republican election hopes. I believe that before the Republicans can get the benefit of getting him off the ballot, they are going to have to pay a huge revenge penalty in one election cycle to purge him from control of the party.
Curious if Dems double down on boosting Rs they view as politically weak due to their support for insurrection. Shapiro trounced Mastriano in PA Gov race and Michigan Dems picked up Peter Meier’s seat now that they’ve beaten John Gibbs who primaried him.
Will be interesting to see a full accounting of that strategy.
I was an election commissioner Tuesday in a deep red precinct in a red state. Turnout was unusually high. There was a constant stream of voters throughout the day. At times, the line was out the door. I went to bed thinking I had witnessed the day democracy died. A big turnout had to be a Republican wave; there weren't enough Democratic voters in the precinct to make a trickle.
Turns out I was right about my precinct (the Republication Senator won 91% of the vote) but thank-the-lord, I was wrong about the country. What I learned was the importance of getting out the vote. A voter would ask if his/her family members had voted, and if they hadn't, sure enough they were at the polls in an hour. Many voters carried a flyer that looked like ballot recommendations. Others came with notes. The vibe was of a united community on a mission to win. How many of these voters could have been persuaded to switch their votes? Not many. Dems can only outvote them with local networks as determined to win as the one I saw yesterday.
My biggest take-away from this: Nate Silver needs to permanently retire his "enhanced" model. It's extremely clear now that it's just a case of him fudging the numbers by throwing in variables until the results start to line up with his gut. As a result, it is worse than worthless. He has turned into the kind of yard-sign-counting hack pundit that he created 538 to counter back in 2008.
I didn't check results last night or first thing this morning, opting instead for the gym last night and the latest episode of Andor this morning. I fully expected a catastrophe as well, and instead performed some version of that viral Kombucha girl video whilst eating my breakfast. Was happy to see what I saw while enjoying an english muffin.
Great post. I think the media over-reports Trump and MAGA for ratings. Distracts us from the obvious. Kari Lake is a prime example. She may still win, but we were led to believe it was going to be a blowout and the press hounded here with questions about running for president.
Same for good Democrats in strong red states. Beto and Ryan got a lot of press but didn’t really have a chance from the beginning.
Thanks for being upfront with your predictions and recognizing you were wrong (in a great way). More pundits should follow your lead, it would lead to a much healthier discourse.
Sucks that Johnson looks like he will squeak out a victory. But ecstatic that WI seems to have avoided the state government super majority and the veto is intact. Can we get an extra emphasis on ending gerrymandering the next time we have the trifecta? It's killing us in Wisconsin and it clearly shows in the House.
Helluva night, bring on the Trump v Desantis fight next year. Bringing the popcorn.
If Boebert ends up losing I think we’ve seen the beginning of the end of the q wing.
I am thrilled with the outcome of the election. It was a repudiation of the Trump wing of the Republican Party and a win for regular Republicans. Seeing DeSantis, Rubio, Kemp and Abbot win with ease while the wackos -- Masters, Oz, Lake, Mastriano, et al -- lost badly is an encouraging sign. Trump's recent comments about DeSantis had either no effect or a positive effect -- DeSantis won by 20 points and improved on his performance 4 years ago.
It also reduces the chance of a Trump comeback. The GOP doesn't have to be as afraid of him as they have been. I've long held that he only won because the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton in 2016. She is the only candidate he could be beaten.
It's a fun time to see various interest groups take victory laps and/or assign blame without a whole lot of evidence either way, but I think this election shows the whole "LOCAL POLITICS ARE DEAD, EVERYTHING IS NATIONAL!!1!!1" narrative has been proven to be a bit overblown. We've got a lot of results driven by local/regional issues and beliefs!
As I (a random big city normcore lib) see it, the following things are objectively true:
- The appetite for Trumpist candidates is limited to the most conservative districts in America, and Republicans need a better plan for swing districts. As someone who was involuntarily subjected to completely unhinged ads from Hung Cao on the local sports radio station, this is a good thing.
- In the areas where crime is a tangible concern, it hurt dems / progressives. It probably cost them 2-3 seats in NY, and the pro-criminal candidates are losing in San Francisco.
- Crime as a general specter / vibes issue in other places flopped.
- Illegal immigration as a swing voter issue flopped.
- Dems running as centrists in conservative places did exceedingly well. Dems would do well to embrace Laura Kelly / Jared Golden / Sharice Davids thought when defending majorities.
- Seriously its weird we don't hear more in the national press about the dems crushing fundamentals in the heartland. I'd like to hear more about their secret sauce!
- I think Biden's leadership on pro labor issues has been dramatically underated in important industrial states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Dems should talk about labor victories more!
- This Republican led house with a razor thin majority trying to corral all the kooks and weirdos is going to be genuinely hysterical.
It's kinda nice when candidate quality and policy quality matter. If I were Republicans, I'd try to be more center boring. In many particular cases, Dems should lean into that even more too. Things, especially boring ones, will get done.
Ben Shapiro had my favorite tweet of the night “Red wave to Red wedding”.
I'd like to comment on the GOP overperformance in NY as I suspect once all the votes are counted, the area of the country where GOP will have overperformed the most will be Long Island. As I live in Nassau County Long Island, I feel like I can give some "on the ground" observations that help explain why (Caveat. These are anecdotes and my own observations. I'm the first person to trash these New York Times trips to Trump country that talk to an old man in a diner in rural America who somehow is the "voice" of real America. Or worse, when they speak to an "average joe" citizen, and it turns out this "average joe" is leader of a political activist group. Nonetheless, given we now have solid election results, I think some of my observations may have value).
The number one thing to keep in mind about Long Island is that it's the original "white flight" suburb. Look up the history of Levittown (the first modern planned community). More than northern NJ, Westchester or Fairfield County, Long Island is the place where white residents have moved to in order to "get away" from big bad New York City. Yes, to a certain degree, this describes all NYC suburbs (heck all suburbs). But I've lived in CT and have family in NJ and can't begin to tell you how much that vibe is stronger in Long Island. When I moved to Nassau County in 2010, it wasn't just that it was striking that I met person after person who had never been to NYC outside of a school field trip but would say it with a point of pride. Typical answer would be "why would I ever go to NYC. Such a dirty gross place" (again this is at a time when crime was rapidly falling).
What does this all have to do with GOP overperformance in Long Island? There is not a region or place in America more primed for a "crime is out of control" and specifically a "crime in NYC is out of control" then Long Island. It's a catnip political message. Almost every Zeldin add I saw was security cam footage of assaults and thefts...disproportionately in the NYC subway.
Given there will also likely be general overperformance of GOP in NY, I think it's worth pointing out that a big factor is not just focus on crime, but the disproportionate amount of coverage crime in NYC gets in media and cable news. A person voting in Oklahoma may watch and see all these reports of "NYC crime is out of control" and get shake they're in alarm. But that same person may also ultimately decide this shouldn't have any bearing on their vote for Governor (I'm using Oklahoma as my example because of that moment in the Oklahoma governor debate when the D candidate brought up that Oklahoma was actually wildly more dangerous than NYC and it seems as though Stitt genuinely didn't believe it). But if you live in NY, crime in NYC seems much more relevant. Even if you live in Buffalo, a voter will (correctly note) that the governor has at least some control or say in what crime is like in NYC.
Lastly on the crime question. I can't begin to tell you how terrible it is that Mayor Adams seems to be determined to boost the worst Fox News stereotypes of NYC crime is and how this likely factored into the results. Two things can be true, crime (And perhaps more perinatally visible homelessness) are up and crime is still much lower than it was in the 90s. When Mayor Adams says crime is worse than it's ever been even when he was a beat cop, it's just such a wildly irresponsible thing for him to say. Especially as his city is relies on tourism and people coming for the leisure options for tax revenue (something that will be more important with WFH).
Again, definitely anecdote and observations of just one person. Happy to amend once real voting data comes out and someone like David Shorr can give us more expert data analysis. But thought it worth sharing.
Aside from the box-watching nuts in Arizona over the last few weeks, has there been any real reporting of bad polling place shenanigans? After a decent amount of hand-wringing about pollworker safety, we had an utterly and completely normal night at my ward. No need to frown at the odd MAGA-hat electioneering troll, not a single rejected absentee.
80% as many ballots cast as total names in the poll book (i.e., pre-registered voters), which I thought was pretty neat.
It can both be true that the Republicans underperformed *and* that they will capture both the House and the Senate. I'd like to think that they would be chastened by their relatively poor performance and not overreach but that seems to go against their ethos and, sad to say as a loyal Democrat, it would be counter to what my party did after such a "chastening" underperformance. You know, way way back in 2020 when they expected to do much better though still squeaked to control of both houses only to then decide that Biden should be FDR and their party had a mandate to pass huge, transformative legislation.
If they do squeak through, I expect the Republicans to do no less.
This was also incredibly good news for 2024. First, the likelihood of Republicans being able to overturn a Biden win went way, way down due to political factors and who actually won/lost elections. Second, the economy will most likely look even better in Nov 2024, even if there is a small recession in 2023. Third, the incumbent president almost always does significantly better than their midterm result. And fourth, this sets up a potentially much more bruising primary battle between Desantis and Trump. I can't image Trump losing a primary campaign without at least torpedoing the next presidential election if not inflicting even more damage on Republican election hopes. I believe that before the Republicans can get the benefit of getting him off the ballot, they are going to have to pay a huge revenge penalty in one election cycle to purge him from control of the party.
Curious if Dems double down on boosting Rs they view as politically weak due to their support for insurrection. Shapiro trounced Mastriano in PA Gov race and Michigan Dems picked up Peter Meier’s seat now that they’ve beaten John Gibbs who primaried him.
Will be interesting to see a full accounting of that strategy.
I was an election commissioner Tuesday in a deep red precinct in a red state. Turnout was unusually high. There was a constant stream of voters throughout the day. At times, the line was out the door. I went to bed thinking I had witnessed the day democracy died. A big turnout had to be a Republican wave; there weren't enough Democratic voters in the precinct to make a trickle.
Turns out I was right about my precinct (the Republication Senator won 91% of the vote) but thank-the-lord, I was wrong about the country. What I learned was the importance of getting out the vote. A voter would ask if his/her family members had voted, and if they hadn't, sure enough they were at the polls in an hour. Many voters carried a flyer that looked like ballot recommendations. Others came with notes. The vibe was of a united community on a mission to win. How many of these voters could have been persuaded to switch their votes? Not many. Dems can only outvote them with local networks as determined to win as the one I saw yesterday.
My biggest take-away from this: Nate Silver needs to permanently retire his "enhanced" model. It's extremely clear now that it's just a case of him fudging the numbers by throwing in variables until the results start to line up with his gut. As a result, it is worse than worthless. He has turned into the kind of yard-sign-counting hack pundit that he created 538 to counter back in 2008.
I didn't check results last night or first thing this morning, opting instead for the gym last night and the latest episode of Andor this morning. I fully expected a catastrophe as well, and instead performed some version of that viral Kombucha girl video whilst eating my breakfast. Was happy to see what I saw while enjoying an english muffin.
By the way, here's a headline to an opinion column I'd like to read from MY or anyone at the NYT:
"Maybe Nothing's the Matter with Kansas. Democrat Laura Kelly Likely Wins a Second Term."
Great post. I think the media over-reports Trump and MAGA for ratings. Distracts us from the obvious. Kari Lake is a prime example. She may still win, but we were led to believe it was going to be a blowout and the press hounded here with questions about running for president.
Same for good Democrats in strong red states. Beto and Ryan got a lot of press but didn’t really have a chance from the beginning.