"his fault, in the sense that ARP contributed to it [Inflation]"
No. Please listen to what I tell you. We are in a inflation targeting regime. Fiscal policy, even fiscal policy that reduces future income by shifting reserves from investment to consumption DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION.
I struggle to understand how a bill that increases domestic fossil fuels production could reduce emissions. This seems like it could only be the case if it caused foreign fossil fuels production to decrease by an amount larger than the increase in domestic production. Is that anticipated to be the case?
"If you tried to raise concerns about ideological direction, the pitiless election-winning machine would ask for specific proof that you were really losing voters over this."
Kamala Harris received 11 million fewer votes than Joe Biden. There's the specific proof.
Not really in the scope of this piece. But you, and others, have talked about Biden and Democrats being slow to pivot on inflation and immigration.
Immigration yes, a huge blunder. But what I haven’t really seen or heard is what the pivot on inflation post-midterm was supposed to be.
Inflation was coming down. On Election Day, it was at pre-pandemic levels. The electorate was still mad because prices were higher still, because that’s how inflation works. But short of engineering a preseason, what level did Biden or Dems have to lower prices?
Yes, there are things on the supply side, especially in housing, that could and should be done. But even if Dems could unilaterally enact those things, it would take longer than a couple years to have major impacts normie voters would feel.
Is that just a “too bad you lose” situation? That sucks, but it happens. But what is the pivot you (and others) are thinking they didn’t do?
This is really good. There's a reason why I (American living in the UK) don't consider myself a Democrat and generally dislike the Democrats, despite the fact that I'm a card carrying member of the UK Liberal Democrats, who share a lot of overlap with the American Democratic party. I just very much do not feel like I fit into the party, even though I keep voting for them for President and there are a lot of people with whom I agree very closely on things who are very much center-left Democrats.
Quality governance is such a huge issue. The fundamental issue for me is that, if we ever hope to be given the keys to the country for enough time to do anything useful, we need to demonstrate our competence to deliver with the levers of power that we hold in perpetuity.
Our cities need to be safe (and feel safe), pleasant, and affordable, with high quality public education available to all. We can’t hang “sorry, we’re full” signs on there door in the form of rents. We can’t have the streets full of fentanyl addicts that cause the attack ads to write themselves. We can’t neglect public education (or supply-constrain it to those who excel on a placement test at 8 years old). Folks are voting with their feet, and they’re moving to Texas, Florida, and Arizona, because while folks there may be saying “build the wall”, they also built a whole helluva lot of housing.
"The pitiless machine’s impulse is to duck whatever can be ducked, rather than be caught punching left."
One pretty simple example of this was Biden, after being interrupted at the SOTU by Marjorie Taylor Greene, repeating the word "illegals." Matt and I have both spent time in South Texas. "Illegals" is not how nice people in corporate America or media talk. But it's not, to even many Latinos near the border, a horrible slur. And it's how every Republican talks.
What happened? Biden did a friendly sit-down with MSNBC. One question began by noting that he used the word "illegal." Biden immediately corrected himself and said, "I should have said undocumented."
There you had the Dem-friendly media urging him to take down his words and Biden obliging, even though no voter on the fence was angry about this.
Mailbag question: I hear from left of center sources that they believe the source of the problem is (1) misogyny (2) the media.
None of the stuff that pro growth or abundance minded writers like yourself identify as the issue.
This is making me very worried that we’re facing a fractured party. If we don’t all agree about what the problem is, how can we have any hope of effectively addressing it? Any ideas?
Mailbag question: Why did so few people see Trump’s myriad crimes, especially January 6th, as disqualifying? Out of everything I find most baffling the facts that 55 senators voted to convict and 4 years later >50% of Americans voted to reelect.
Mailbag question: Why did so few people see Trump’s myriad crimes, especially January 6th, as disqualifying? Out of everything I find most baffling the facts that 55 senators voted to convict and 4 years later >50% of Americans voted to reelect.
“But were they willing to say that the Supreme Court was right that discriminating against Asian college applicants is not an acceptable way to pursue social justice? To say that fair-minded treatment of transgender people can’t override female athletes’ interest in being treated fairly themselves? To execute a murderer?” This resonated so hard with me. I’m having trouble finding the justice anymore.
I'm sure you've seen the Bernie tweet floating around the internet this week. It says something to the effect of "the Democratic party has abandoned working class people, and we shouldn't be supersized that they no longer want to vote for Democrats."
I've been discussing that sentiment with my liberal bubble, and there seems to be opposing views on its validity. What do you think?
I disagree with the implication of the tweet, that a Democratic agenda is somehow worse for working class people than a Republican one. I think Democrats have a messaging problem, but I don't think that the solution is lying to working people or adopting rhetoric that appeals to working class anxieties at the expense of good policy.
This is a question for the mailbag. Why didn't Biden do more to discourage or limit the influx of migrants at the southern border? If you've already written about this, could you give me a referral to that post? Thank you!
Mailbag question: We know what lessons you, Matt, think Democrats should take from this loss. What is the most likely lesson that will be learned? Bonus question: Will Democrats largely treat Trump admin 2.0 in the same Resistance mode that they did the first time around and catastrophize every decision made?
"Trump believes a lot of insane, non-standard things about trade. Some of his key staffers have insane beliefs about immigration, and he’s now incorporated a broad set of totally new insane ideas associated with RFK Jr into his coalition."
This is my number one worry - and it isn't particularly close.
"his fault, in the sense that ARP contributed to it [Inflation]"
No. Please listen to what I tell you. We are in a inflation targeting regime. Fiscal policy, even fiscal policy that reduces future income by shifting reserves from investment to consumption DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION.
I struggle to understand how a bill that increases domestic fossil fuels production could reduce emissions. This seems like it could only be the case if it caused foreign fossil fuels production to decrease by an amount larger than the increase in domestic production. Is that anticipated to be the case?
"If you tried to raise concerns about ideological direction, the pitiless election-winning machine would ask for specific proof that you were really losing voters over this."
Kamala Harris received 11 million fewer votes than Joe Biden. There's the specific proof.
The District Judge found as a fact that Harvard did not discriminate against Asian Americans.
Not really in the scope of this piece. But you, and others, have talked about Biden and Democrats being slow to pivot on inflation and immigration.
Immigration yes, a huge blunder. But what I haven’t really seen or heard is what the pivot on inflation post-midterm was supposed to be.
Inflation was coming down. On Election Day, it was at pre-pandemic levels. The electorate was still mad because prices were higher still, because that’s how inflation works. But short of engineering a preseason, what level did Biden or Dems have to lower prices?
Yes, there are things on the supply side, especially in housing, that could and should be done. But even if Dems could unilaterally enact those things, it would take longer than a couple years to have major impacts normie voters would feel.
Is that just a “too bad you lose” situation? That sucks, but it happens. But what is the pivot you (and others) are thinking they didn’t do?
This is really good. There's a reason why I (American living in the UK) don't consider myself a Democrat and generally dislike the Democrats, despite the fact that I'm a card carrying member of the UK Liberal Democrats, who share a lot of overlap with the American Democratic party. I just very much do not feel like I fit into the party, even though I keep voting for them for President and there are a lot of people with whom I agree very closely on things who are very much center-left Democrats.
Quality governance is such a huge issue. The fundamental issue for me is that, if we ever hope to be given the keys to the country for enough time to do anything useful, we need to demonstrate our competence to deliver with the levers of power that we hold in perpetuity.
Our cities need to be safe (and feel safe), pleasant, and affordable, with high quality public education available to all. We can’t hang “sorry, we’re full” signs on there door in the form of rents. We can’t have the streets full of fentanyl addicts that cause the attack ads to write themselves. We can’t neglect public education (or supply-constrain it to those who excel on a placement test at 8 years old). Folks are voting with their feet, and they’re moving to Texas, Florida, and Arizona, because while folks there may be saying “build the wall”, they also built a whole helluva lot of housing.
"The pitiless machine’s impulse is to duck whatever can be ducked, rather than be caught punching left."
One pretty simple example of this was Biden, after being interrupted at the SOTU by Marjorie Taylor Greene, repeating the word "illegals." Matt and I have both spent time in South Texas. "Illegals" is not how nice people in corporate America or media talk. But it's not, to even many Latinos near the border, a horrible slur. And it's how every Republican talks.
What happened? Biden did a friendly sit-down with MSNBC. One question began by noting that he used the word "illegal." Biden immediately corrected himself and said, "I should have said undocumented."
There you had the Dem-friendly media urging him to take down his words and Biden obliging, even though no voter on the fence was angry about this.
Mailbag question: I hear from left of center sources that they believe the source of the problem is (1) misogyny (2) the media.
None of the stuff that pro growth or abundance minded writers like yourself identify as the issue.
This is making me very worried that we’re facing a fractured party. If we don’t all agree about what the problem is, how can we have any hope of effectively addressing it? Any ideas?
Mailbag question: Why did so few people see Trump’s myriad crimes, especially January 6th, as disqualifying? Out of everything I find most baffling the facts that 55 senators voted to convict and 4 years later >50% of Americans voted to reelect.
Mailbag question: Why did so few people see Trump’s myriad crimes, especially January 6th, as disqualifying? Out of everything I find most baffling the facts that 55 senators voted to convict and 4 years later >50% of Americans voted to reelect.
“But were they willing to say that the Supreme Court was right that discriminating against Asian college applicants is not an acceptable way to pursue social justice? To say that fair-minded treatment of transgender people can’t override female athletes’ interest in being treated fairly themselves? To execute a murderer?” This resonated so hard with me. I’m having trouble finding the justice anymore.
I'm sure you've seen the Bernie tweet floating around the internet this week. It says something to the effect of "the Democratic party has abandoned working class people, and we shouldn't be supersized that they no longer want to vote for Democrats."
I've been discussing that sentiment with my liberal bubble, and there seems to be opposing views on its validity. What do you think?
I disagree with the implication of the tweet, that a Democratic agenda is somehow worse for working class people than a Republican one. I think Democrats have a messaging problem, but I don't think that the solution is lying to working people or adopting rhetoric that appeals to working class anxieties at the expense of good policy.
This is a question for the mailbag. Why didn't Biden do more to discourage or limit the influx of migrants at the southern border? If you've already written about this, could you give me a referral to that post? Thank you!
Mailbag question: We know what lessons you, Matt, think Democrats should take from this loss. What is the most likely lesson that will be learned? Bonus question: Will Democrats largely treat Trump admin 2.0 in the same Resistance mode that they did the first time around and catastrophize every decision made?
"Trump believes a lot of insane, non-standard things about trade. Some of his key staffers have insane beliefs about immigration, and he’s now incorporated a broad set of totally new insane ideas associated with RFK Jr into his coalition."
This is my number one worry - and it isn't particularly close.