What happens next

The baseline, some possible changes, and way more attention to abortion

Hey folks, welcome to the first full day of Joe Biden’s America.

I think what everyone wants to know is what’s going to happen over the next four, eight, and twelve years of American politics. Fortunately, you’re a Slow Boring subscriber and I can tell you — we don’t really know.

The best way to think about the future is to think about the recent past of efforts to predict the future. Nobody is better plugged-in to DC gossip than Politico, so check out the lookback that Alex Thompson and Theodoric Meyer published Tuesday on their Biden Cabinet reporting:

Of the 18 Cabinet posts we included, we didn’t even mention the ultimate nominee for 15 of them. Our only consolation is that The New York Times didn’t fare any better, reporting just three of 17 senior administration roles correctly in their initial piece.

So how did I do? With the exception of Attorney General, I didn’t cheat by offering multiple suggestions for each job. I also only tried to report on the 15 jobs that start with “Sec…