Friday was my kid’s birthday, and I took advantage of being my own boss to take most of the day off and hang out with the family. So, there’s not too much for you this Saturday — but a few thoughts.

The coming case/death divergence

There’s a lot of concern in the air that with things opening up again, we are primed for a huge surge in COVID-19 cases even as vaccinations roll out.

I think this data from Israel, which is ahead of the US in vaccinations, is relevant. Basically, cases have plateaued at a high level:

But deaths (and hospitalizations) keep falling: