The Obama of 2028?

Democrats need a moderate that leftists like — Israel could provide an Iraq-like opening

Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia (Photo by Heather Diehl)

I’m obsessed (in a bad way) with Gavin Newsom’s status as the Democratic Party front-runner for 2028.

He’s a guy who is perceived as quite left-wing based on his record in California but is also generally disliked by the left. This is a disastrous dead zone for a nominee to be in — it’s exactly where we landed with both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2024. And while Joe Biden succeeded in being perceived as moderate by voters during the 2020 campaign, he lost that sheen almost immediately after taking office.

Barack Obama was notably different.

By the standards of today’s Democrats, he was shockingly moderate on questions of enduring political controversy. He was a big proponent of merit pay for teachers and ran in 2008 as a critic of affirmative action in admissions, though he later shifted left on that.

Maybe it’s just a coincidence but, as I wrote earlier this week in a New York Times op-ed, those are literally the two most potent issues for Democrats to moderate on. And beyond those two issues, think about the “all of the above” energy policy, Obama’s embrace of the Secure Communities deportation program (another thing he shifted left on later), and his approach to deficit reduction and spending cuts.

Obama was also notably cautious on gay marriage. He kind of winked at supporters periodically to indicate that he was probably on their side, but he ran in 2008 saying that marriage is the union of a man and a woman, only to flip-flop after the public support crossed 50 percent.

And yet what’s definitely true is that despite his heterodoxies and political caution, Obama is someone who progressives were very excited about in 2007 and 2008, in large part because of his early stance against the Iraq war.

In the primary against Hillary Clinton, he had a notable dual base: Black Democrats, who are ideologically diverse but mostly moderate, and also educated white progressives. Those educated progressives were probably numerically less important to his primary win than the African-American moderates. But they provided the money that made his insurgent campaign viable, and they also generated a lot of positive press for Obama.

Progressive support carried over into the general election, where the vibe was in favor of letting Obama cook, allowing him to say and do whatever was necessary to win the election. It was the exact opposite of Harris’s situation.

Could anyone pull off something like that today?

There’s no exact analog to Obama’s big speech opposing the Iraq war in 2002. But there is one issue that has the following characteristics:

1. Progressive activists and intellectuals care a lot about it

2. It’s a low priority for most voters

3. The whole party establishment has lined up against the progressives

4. The progressive stand is no longer unpopular

The issue is Israel.

Probably not the topic that thought leaders in the moderation space are eager to embrace the left-wing view of, but it’s pretty clearly the best way for a pragmatic Democrat to gain progressive cred without alienating the electorate and perhaps secure space for Obama-style moderation.

How Obama became a moderate left-wing factionalist