The good news on redistricting isn't that good

Offsetting gerrymanders is better than unilateral disarmament, but...

After months of worrying about a 2020 redistricting wipeout, Democrats now seem likely to be facing slightly friendlier maps rather than more hostile ones when all the boundaries are finalized.

This can be measured in different ways, but Joel Wertheimer at Data for Progress looked at each seat and asked whether it is to the left or to the right of Joe Biden’s 4.5% national margin in 2020. He finds, based on the maps that have been finalized so far, that 16 seats have switched from right of the margin to left of the margin, and it’s possible that a favorable court ruling in Ohio would result in there being slightly more seats to the left of Biden’s margins than to the right.

(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

This will naturally turn down the heat on the idea of national gerrymandering reform, which is probably for the best since no such reform was passing anyway. There seems to be some prospect of a bipartisan agreement on the Electoral Count Act, and I hope they do that. But I also continue to…