The bizarre march to war with Venezuela

Trump's foreign policy isn't restrained, it's violent and cynical and bad

One day, while I was eating lunch at the Sweetgreen near my office, someone approached my table and asked, “Are you Matt Yglesias?”

I, of course, am Matt Yglesias, and this happens every so often in DC, so I was expecting the guy to say he enjoyed my newsletter or perhaps my tweets.

But what he actually did was pitch me on an idea for a piece: The Biden administration should go all-in on regime change in Venezuela, install a government of America-friendly emigrés and other opposition figures, and inject investment and foreign expertise into the Venezuelan oil and gas industry. He felt this would create more hemispheric energy production, help check the power of Russia and Saudi Arabia, be good for the global economy, etc.

This struck me as kind of addled at the time, but it does, in fact, appear to be the Trump administration’s policy heading into 2026.

The Treasury Secretary appeared on television on November 20 talking about the cost of living and said, “if something happens down in Venezuela, that we could really see oil prices go down even more.” And while this comment been a bit obscured by the 11 other insane things that are happening every day, the Pentagon has deployed its largest aircraft carrier and the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group just off the Venezuelan coast. There are also a number of smaller ships involved, but the point is that the USS Gerald Ford and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit that accompanies the Iwo Jima are massive overkill for blowing up some small boats.

This is what you would do if you were preparing to undertake an invasion of Venezuela — or at least if you wanted people to think you were preparing to undertake an invasion of Venezuela.