Speaking strictly for myself, I hope Dems realize that while I voted to restrain/disempower Trump, reign in corruption, and generally bring some sanity back to government…I did not vote for the Return of Woke (tm). I confess to being a little worried that the sheer scale of their victory will go to Dems heads, and they will spend that support pushing some unpopular positions when they should be using it to simply prevent MAGAs return to power
In addition to Montana, the other big Dem bag fumble was John Bel Edwards not running for Senate in La. Basically any Democrat who talked themselves out of running this year should will, and should, be kicking themselves for a good long time. There's a Pelosi quote that I can never quite remember to the effect of "when you have an opportunity you need to take it immediately" and it keeps being true.
Ok so time for some "hot takes". You know because after admonishing a bajillion pundits (including this one) for way too in the moment analysis of election results in 2024, I have to of course do the same.
But I'm actually not going to analyze the "why" of what just happened and DEFINITELY not going to make any comment about whether this represents some permanent "vibe shift" (what I was really sort of most critical of).
No just more of a prediction...you're going to see more and more reports of GOP officials worried about Trump's health and mental decline. To me it's the "get out of jail free" card of this moment. One, they just watched Democrats be able to shove aside their own standard bearer for being too old. So they have "proof of concept". But two, even if Trump's approval fall further still (and not crazy to think it won't), there's a floor likely around 30-35%; which would mean GOP primary voters in early 2028 would still likely be Trump approvers and likely strong Trump approvers. So how do you both distance from a very unpopular President but also make sure his supporters don't think you're betraying their cult leader? Talk about how Trump has been some great servant to this country (or some equivalent lie), a great man (lol), but that just like with beloved grandparents or parents sometimes you just get to the point you need to take away the car keys.
We'll see how badly this "hot take" ages. Lots of time before we decide if I'm right. Sort of think Ron DeSantis is the leader in the clubhouse to the question "who is going to be the Lucious Malfoy of the Trump years" and I could see him maybe very soon saying stuff like this.
This is a definite "hot take" so feel free to throw at me why you think I'm wildly wrong on this.
Way late to the comments but one more great thing about the size of this victory is, it short circuits any attempt at election disputing effery by Trump and his lickspittles in DOJ. I mean, it’s pretty hard to call this election fraud across the entirety of the US.
We'll all have time to debate in these comments whether Dem strategy in Congress is right or wrong (heck quite soon given upcoming votes needed to fund the Iran war). I'm guessing we'll have LOTs of debates about the best candidate for the Dem nomination as soon soon as Josh Shapiro and Jon Ossoff announce their candidacies in January (there will be plenty announcing from plenty of people. And way way way too early to endorse anyone. Just noting these are the two most logical people to announce...and they should).
But for now...I'm going to enjoy this and have a very happy glass of wine tonight to celebrate.
1. The voters furiously repudiated Trump and the Republicans for making their lives materially worse. (I.e., not for undermining democracy.)
2. The candidate selection process and the primaries worked great. A heavy (fatal?) blow to the "smoke-filled rooms" alternative?
3. The polls didn't break our hearts. This time.
4. Winning a huge majority in the House is wonderful because so many seats were rented for two years, and a bunch will return to the Republicans in 2028.
4a. As some people thought (cough cough me), doing a redistricting to squeeze out a few more seats as the unpopular incumbent party heading into the midterms was a boneheaded move.
5. It's unlikely the war in Iran will resume. The Gulf states will likely develop a Strange New Respect for Democrats and move away from Trump, and the electoral turmoil in Israel will likely take them out of the game.
6. The new Word of the Year is "schadenfreude." I'm reading Jacob Weisberg's "Profiles in Cowardice" about the moral pygmies who caved to Trump. Receipts, we got 'em. Revenge is a dish best eaten ice cold, super hot, or just the right temperature.
7. The 2028 nomination contest for both parties begins today. Will be Wild!
8. It turns out the celebration of the Sesquicentennial was postponed from July 4 to Nov. 3.
9. And, finally, sometimes the Good Guys actually win. As Rocky from "Project Hail Mary" would put it, amaze amaze amaze!
That seems like a hugely optimistic assessment. The stereotype already is that, when Presidents' domestic agendas are stymied, they turn their attention to foreign affairs.
I hope Matt or Milan or Halina or someone digs into the various referendums that were on the ballots last night.
Last night was such a clear kick in the nuts of Trump and MAGA that it's very unclear if voters were signaling that actually wanted anything in particular from Dems, other than not being the GOP.
And given the super high turnout of Dems and relatively low turnout of the GOP, the results of the referendums might signal what is actually possible to achieve with positive voter support.
The Dispatch did a good summary of the referendums in The Morning Dispatch. It seems like we mostly got good, common sense outcomes across the country. This is the most hopeful I've felt in damn near a decade.
If you want to "now more than ever" this thing El Sayed underperformed the Michigan Dem house candidates by about -2.5%. Flanagan underperformed by -1.5%
I wish AES was more of a normie so we would not have to guess which he was penalized for more. There is disagreement on this in the comments and I don't think there is any real way to sort out whether he was punished more for being Muslim, having an ethnic name or because he was a lefty.
It appears that one of the worst candidates in my lifetime, Anthony Constantino, won against a moderate Democrat in NY-21. I know people in that district and am heading there for a conference today, so the joy will be subdued, but I'll trade that for the national results.
If this is the end of the Trump era, unfortunately I suspect in a few years we will look back on Trump with a certain degree of fondness compared to what comes next. Trump is at least funny and motivated by narcissism and greed as opposed to sheer malice, which seems to be the driving force for the next wave of conservative leaders (Tucker, Fuentes, et al)
I lived in Durham for about eight years in the 2010s. North Carolina ain't the deep south. Obviously Durham is an island of blue, but even so, I was calling NC the shallow South from the day I moved in from the Midwest, in large part because I was expecting more of a culture change than I encountered.
Speaking strictly for myself, I hope Dems realize that while I voted to restrain/disempower Trump, reign in corruption, and generally bring some sanity back to government…I did not vote for the Return of Woke (tm). I confess to being a little worried that the sheer scale of their victory will go to Dems heads, and they will spend that support pushing some unpopular positions when they should be using it to simply prevent MAGAs return to power
In addition to Montana, the other big Dem bag fumble was John Bel Edwards not running for Senate in La. Basically any Democrat who talked themselves out of running this year should will, and should, be kicking themselves for a good long time. There's a Pelosi quote that I can never quite remember to the effect of "when you have an opportunity you need to take it immediately" and it keeps being true.
Ok so time for some "hot takes". You know because after admonishing a bajillion pundits (including this one) for way too in the moment analysis of election results in 2024, I have to of course do the same.
But I'm actually not going to analyze the "why" of what just happened and DEFINITELY not going to make any comment about whether this represents some permanent "vibe shift" (what I was really sort of most critical of).
No just more of a prediction...you're going to see more and more reports of GOP officials worried about Trump's health and mental decline. To me it's the "get out of jail free" card of this moment. One, they just watched Democrats be able to shove aside their own standard bearer for being too old. So they have "proof of concept". But two, even if Trump's approval fall further still (and not crazy to think it won't), there's a floor likely around 30-35%; which would mean GOP primary voters in early 2028 would still likely be Trump approvers and likely strong Trump approvers. So how do you both distance from a very unpopular President but also make sure his supporters don't think you're betraying their cult leader? Talk about how Trump has been some great servant to this country (or some equivalent lie), a great man (lol), but that just like with beloved grandparents or parents sometimes you just get to the point you need to take away the car keys.
We'll see how badly this "hot take" ages. Lots of time before we decide if I'm right. Sort of think Ron DeSantis is the leader in the clubhouse to the question "who is going to be the Lucious Malfoy of the Trump years" and I could see him maybe very soon saying stuff like this.
This is a definite "hot take" so feel free to throw at me why you think I'm wildly wrong on this.
It's not a hot take.
Way late to the comments but one more great thing about the size of this victory is, it short circuits any attempt at election disputing effery by Trump and his lickspittles in DOJ. I mean, it’s pretty hard to call this election fraud across the entirety of the US.
Pretty excited to see President Ossoff replace an 80+ Alito and Thomas with a couple 50 year olds.
Ooh, will there be an attempt to replace one or both of them in the lame duck session? Polymarket says about 20% for each.
"It’s a great day for America."
We'll all have time to debate in these comments whether Dem strategy in Congress is right or wrong (heck quite soon given upcoming votes needed to fund the Iran war). I'm guessing we'll have LOTs of debates about the best candidate for the Dem nomination as soon soon as Josh Shapiro and Jon Ossoff announce their candidacies in January (there will be plenty announcing from plenty of people. And way way way too early to endorse anyone. Just noting these are the two most logical people to announce...and they should).
But for now...I'm going to enjoy this and have a very happy glass of wine tonight to celebrate.
Ctrl+F "Michael Adelman"
My takeaways:
1. The voters furiously repudiated Trump and the Republicans for making their lives materially worse. (I.e., not for undermining democracy.)
2. The candidate selection process and the primaries worked great. A heavy (fatal?) blow to the "smoke-filled rooms" alternative?
3. The polls didn't break our hearts. This time.
4. Winning a huge majority in the House is wonderful because so many seats were rented for two years, and a bunch will return to the Republicans in 2028.
4a. As some people thought (cough cough me), doing a redistricting to squeeze out a few more seats as the unpopular incumbent party heading into the midterms was a boneheaded move.
5. It's unlikely the war in Iran will resume. The Gulf states will likely develop a Strange New Respect for Democrats and move away from Trump, and the electoral turmoil in Israel will likely take them out of the game.
6. The new Word of the Year is "schadenfreude." I'm reading Jacob Weisberg's "Profiles in Cowardice" about the moral pygmies who caved to Trump. Receipts, we got 'em. Revenge is a dish best eaten ice cold, super hot, or just the right temperature.
7. The 2028 nomination contest for both parties begins today. Will be Wild!
8. It turns out the celebration of the Sesquicentennial was postponed from July 4 to Nov. 3.
9. And, finally, sometimes the Good Guys actually win. As Rocky from "Project Hail Mary" would put it, amaze amaze amaze!
U-S-A! U-S-A!
"It's unlikely the war in Iran will resume."
That seems like a hugely optimistic assessment. The stereotype already is that, when Presidents' domestic agendas are stymied, they turn their attention to foreign affairs.
I hope Matt or Milan or Halina or someone digs into the various referendums that were on the ballots last night.
Last night was such a clear kick in the nuts of Trump and MAGA that it's very unclear if voters were signaling that actually wanted anything in particular from Dems, other than not being the GOP.
And given the super high turnout of Dems and relatively low turnout of the GOP, the results of the referendums might signal what is actually possible to achieve with positive voter support.
The Dispatch did a good summary of the referendums in The Morning Dispatch. It seems like we mostly got good, common sense outcomes across the country. This is the most hopeful I've felt in damn near a decade.
You can substitute "kick in the nuts" if you like.
If you want to "now more than ever" this thing El Sayed underperformed the Michigan Dem house candidates by about -2.5%. Flanagan underperformed by -1.5%
Hamilton overpeformed by 4% the Dem KS house
Talarico overperformed by 4%
Turek overpeformed by .5%
Ossoff overpeformed by 3%
How Americans Voted in the 2026 Election by Race, Gender, Age and Education - The New York Times https://share.google/2IyoVPa8zKXaSYeoI
Muslim + lefty + ethnic name = 2.5% electoral penalty
About what you'd expect.
I wish AES was more of a normie so we would not have to guess which he was penalized for more. There is disagreement on this in the comments and I don't think there is any real way to sort out whether he was punished more for being Muslim, having an ethnic name or because he was a lefty.
It appears that one of the worst candidates in my lifetime, Anthony Constantino, won against a moderate Democrat in NY-21. I know people in that district and am heading there for a conference today, so the joy will be subdued, but I'll trade that for the national results.
If this is the end of the Trump era, unfortunately I suspect in a few years we will look back on Trump with a certain degree of fondness compared to what comes next. Trump is at least funny and motivated by narcissism and greed as opposed to sheer malice, which seems to be the driving force for the next wave of conservative leaders (Tucker, Fuentes, et al)
No. 18. Texas is now officially purple while Florida is the capital of Red America.
I declare a one-week media moratorium on the word "rebuke."
And without once using "buke", it's always straight to rebuke with these guys.
I lived in Durham for about eight years in the 2010s. North Carolina ain't the deep south. Obviously Durham is an island of blue, but even so, I was calling NC the shallow South from the day I moved in from the Midwest, in large part because I was expecting more of a culture change than I encountered.
It was a very good night for Yglesias-thought, but don't dismiss the failures as gimmicks.