I see there’s no lack of opinion among the usual suspects in the SB comments…but Halina—what’s YOUR take? What should happen next? What should Abundance people lobby and electioneer on? I DO hope we get to have you in THAT space in addition to the fine piece of reporting offered here. Welcome, and To Be Continued!
I' like to see some discussion of the quasi-denialist claim that hurricanes have not gotten worse with the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere as evidence we should downgrade our estimate of the total hare expected from the accumulation.
I'm exhausted today (owing to overindulgence* in wine at last night's dinner, resulting terrible night's sleep, and extreme heat) and without the Saturday thread, I was forced to waste time on Zillow 😱
* ie, more than one glass of anything other than my low-ABV vinho verde or pet nat. I'm a lightweight...
Is Trump screwing the economy so bad that even with redistricting in Republican states they are going to lose the House in a major wave, and maybe the Senate too?
I’ve been impressed by the resilience of the US economy. Absent Trump’s stupidity, I suspect we’d be looking at GDP growth a full percentage higher. But so far, we underestimate Trump at our peril. He, and the Republicans are being just canny and corrupt enough to keep things from crashing, most damage they’re doing is long term, and even the big ugly bill’s effects are slated to hit after 2026.
I would have been sympathetic to your argument a few weeks ago, but the cracks have started to show in the U.S. economy. Like most things, it starts slow but then happens all at once.
You describe Trump as canny, which he certainly is about certain things, but he is stupid about a great many other things like the economy.
This reflection is useful but partial. NWS of course being very technical is something one would expect other than technical upgrade spend is something that good one to engage in across the Federal services.
For NWS its probably useful for recent retirees and buyouts to communicate on functions and losses sans appearing to engage in Trump Derangement Syndrome to help push back against inevitable Trump admin spin as services decline. Willing (and able) to go on Fox, outside of safe Dem aligned media.
Otherseise a general reflection on rebuilding Federal services post-Trump is something useful.
Until a (hopefully massive) Mid-Term wipe-out that is touching not just in the usual electoral geographies, but widely*, Trump will continue to mangle for at least two years all Federal services. It's baked in.
Rather than doom LARPing - as look, Germany and Japan came back from WWII so doom LARPing about country irretrievably damaged is just childish - thinking about Abundance Agenda and how a real effective "Build Back Better" (not to be used as branding of course) can be done in Federal services - sure restaffing but there's a lot of bureacratic cruft that's built up in rules over years, processes - there may be an opportunity for real reform - not reversion to operation but mediocre baseslines (not re Nat. Weather Service, just overall)
Not directed to Weather Service but the fundamentals of rebuilding taking into account Abundance agenda and taking Trump destruction as an opportunity to address rules made inefficiences (thinking of reference to this note from a certain Steven Koltai https://stevenkoltai.substack.com/p/usaid-and-government-inefficiency [who I personally decades ago interacted (private side) in his Bush admin role]) has utlity - his observations a private sector entrant into USG foreign assistance world and observing decades of rules cruft making it impossible for talented people to really do a great job...
*: if not massive and eating into Red states to scare the shit out of R, then it's going to be 4 yrs....
When I graduated college in 1985 I was employed by Martin Marietta on the Space Shuttle External Tank Project. We had over 4,000 employees. In my eight years there I became disgusted with the inefficiency and waste in that government program, and I used to tell people that you could get a random person to walk the halls firing half the people and there would be no change in the production.
Anyone who tells you those small DOGE cuts are affecting anything but the budget is lying to you.
I got an email from Peacock telling me they were increasing their prices, which is how I found out I still had a Peacock subscription, which I promptly cancelled. Great job, guys.
Hardly unique but I was struck by the subtle NIMBY propagandizing in this news story here in Australia in the ABC (the public news, comparable to NPR or BBC).
"Unley's historic cottages could be lost to make way for Adelaide's newest high rise"
Notice the framing about "historic cottages" vs "high rise". It could have led with "9 millionaires's homes[1] to be cleared to build 254 homes for non-millionaires, including 15% reserved for 'affordable housing'".
All while bleating about the housing crisis being driven by lip service and hypocrisy (in others, not their own editorial choices).
[1] I can't immediately find estimated values for the properties being cleared but one across the street sold for $2.6 million in 2021, just to give an idea of real estate prices in the area
When a party becomes solely dominated by bought off fossil fuel and tech oligarchs and openly brag about it......America wake TF up, you are literally burning.... And I love how no one with a half midwit brain admires Elon....
Five bonus mini-posts a week? Off to a good start with the new hires (at SB)!
I think there's a bit of a generational turnover thing where lots of us grew up treating meteorology as a bit of a joke-butt, that the forecast wasn't much better than oracular pronouncements. It's an important plot device in many movies, for example. But over time, like most things, weather forecasting actually got quite good! So I guess this, too, is part of the nostalgic RETVRN to the 1950s. (Admittedly, the weather *was* better back then...)
Any time I think about the Texas floods I feel ill at the thought in particular of all those teenagers at camp getting washed away. For whatever reason, that's a natural disaster that just depresses me viscerally. The idea that it could have been prevented makes me sick, and part of me hopes that we can prove it was preventable to push back against ideologies like DOGE, and part of me hopes it was just random freak luck with no villains.
I read up as best I could a few weeks ago, and I believe that the warning systems and procedures were actually activated and deployed as they should, that NOAA did in fact issue the correct warnings will in advance, and that most of the blame lies with people ignoring warnings on their phones or not being in range of warning systems.
I see there’s no lack of opinion among the usual suspects in the SB comments…but Halina—what’s YOUR take? What should happen next? What should Abundance people lobby and electioneer on? I DO hope we get to have you in THAT space in addition to the fine piece of reporting offered here. Welcome, and To Be Continued!
I' like to see some discussion of the quasi-denialist claim that hurricanes have not gotten worse with the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere as evidence we should downgrade our estimate of the total hare expected from the accumulation.
“'They already had those experienced people there, and they got rid of them, and now they're having to go back and hire new people,' he said."
An extremely naive question: Can't they re-hire some of the experienced ones?
Love the short form but can we get our regular comment threads back on days without them (including Saturdays)? Thanks!
I know, what's happening? ! How can I kill time??
Yes please!
I'm exhausted today (owing to overindulgence* in wine at last night's dinner, resulting terrible night's sleep, and extreme heat) and without the Saturday thread, I was forced to waste time on Zillow 😱
* ie, more than one glass of anything other than my low-ABV vinho verde or pet nat. I'm a lightweight...
What did you find on Zillow?
I wasn't seriously looking for anything! But kind of want a slightly bigger place in DC at some nebulous point in the future.
Is Trump screwing the economy so bad that even with redistricting in Republican states they are going to lose the House in a major wave, and maybe the Senate too?
I’ve been impressed by the resilience of the US economy. Absent Trump’s stupidity, I suspect we’d be looking at GDP growth a full percentage higher. But so far, we underestimate Trump at our peril. He, and the Republicans are being just canny and corrupt enough to keep things from crashing, most damage they’re doing is long term, and even the big ugly bill’s effects are slated to hit after 2026.
I would have been sympathetic to your argument a few weeks ago, but the cracks have started to show in the U.S. economy. Like most things, it starts slow but then happens all at once.
You describe Trump as canny, which he certainly is about certain things, but he is stupid about a great many other things like the economy.
I like having some short form mixed in. Some days I just don't have the bandwidth...
I’m with you - actually prefer less sometimes.
There are dozens of us!
(There probably are not)
Are they hiring all new people or bringing back the old ones?
This reflection is useful but partial. NWS of course being very technical is something one would expect other than technical upgrade spend is something that good one to engage in across the Federal services.
For NWS its probably useful for recent retirees and buyouts to communicate on functions and losses sans appearing to engage in Trump Derangement Syndrome to help push back against inevitable Trump admin spin as services decline. Willing (and able) to go on Fox, outside of safe Dem aligned media.
Otherseise a general reflection on rebuilding Federal services post-Trump is something useful.
Until a (hopefully massive) Mid-Term wipe-out that is touching not just in the usual electoral geographies, but widely*, Trump will continue to mangle for at least two years all Federal services. It's baked in.
Rather than doom LARPing - as look, Germany and Japan came back from WWII so doom LARPing about country irretrievably damaged is just childish - thinking about Abundance Agenda and how a real effective "Build Back Better" (not to be used as branding of course) can be done in Federal services - sure restaffing but there's a lot of bureacratic cruft that's built up in rules over years, processes - there may be an opportunity for real reform - not reversion to operation but mediocre baseslines (not re Nat. Weather Service, just overall)
Not directed to Weather Service but the fundamentals of rebuilding taking into account Abundance agenda and taking Trump destruction as an opportunity to address rules made inefficiences (thinking of reference to this note from a certain Steven Koltai https://stevenkoltai.substack.com/p/usaid-and-government-inefficiency [who I personally decades ago interacted (private side) in his Bush admin role]) has utlity - his observations a private sector entrant into USG foreign assistance world and observing decades of rules cruft making it impossible for talented people to really do a great job...
*: if not massive and eating into Red states to scare the shit out of R, then it's going to be 4 yrs....
When I graduated college in 1985 I was employed by Martin Marietta on the Space Shuttle External Tank Project. We had over 4,000 employees. In my eight years there I became disgusted with the inefficiency and waste in that government program, and I used to tell people that you could get a random person to walk the halls firing half the people and there would be no change in the production.
Anyone who tells you those small DOGE cuts are affecting anything but the budget is lying to you.
I got an email from Peacock telling me they were increasing their prices, which is how I found out I still had a Peacock subscription, which I promptly cancelled. Great job, guys.
Thanks for the reminder!
Hardly unique but I was struck by the subtle NIMBY propagandizing in this news story here in Australia in the ABC (the public news, comparable to NPR or BBC).
"Unley's historic cottages could be lost to make way for Adelaide's newest high rise"
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/adelaide-breakfast/cottage-development/105615092
Notice the framing about "historic cottages" vs "high rise". It could have led with "9 millionaires's homes[1] to be cleared to build 254 homes for non-millionaires, including 15% reserved for 'affordable housing'".
All while bleating about the housing crisis being driven by lip service and hypocrisy (in others, not their own editorial choices).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-10/housing-crisis-hypocrisy-lip-service/104915610
[1] I can't immediately find estimated values for the properties being cleared but one across the street sold for $2.6 million in 2021, just to give an idea of real estate prices in the area
When a party becomes solely dominated by bought off fossil fuel and tech oligarchs and openly brag about it......America wake TF up, you are literally burning.... And I love how no one with a half midwit brain admires Elon....
Five bonus mini-posts a week? Off to a good start with the new hires (at SB)!
I think there's a bit of a generational turnover thing where lots of us grew up treating meteorology as a bit of a joke-butt, that the forecast wasn't much better than oracular pronouncements. It's an important plot device in many movies, for example. But over time, like most things, weather forecasting actually got quite good! So I guess this, too, is part of the nostalgic RETVRN to the 1950s. (Admittedly, the weather *was* better back then...)
State incapacity illibertarianism?
Any time I think about the Texas floods I feel ill at the thought in particular of all those teenagers at camp getting washed away. For whatever reason, that's a natural disaster that just depresses me viscerally. The idea that it could have been prevented makes me sick, and part of me hopes that we can prove it was preventable to push back against ideologies like DOGE, and part of me hopes it was just random freak luck with no villains.
I read up as best I could a few weeks ago, and I believe that the warning systems and procedures were actually activated and deployed as they should, that NOAA did in fact issue the correct warnings will in advance, and that most of the blame lies with people ignoring warnings on their phones or not being in range of warning systems.
I welcome correction if this is not the case.
This is my understanding as well
Air gets colder
Days get shorter
Tune on in to that NOAA radio
-Clutch
“… will be sharing a short piece with readers on weekday evenings.….”
Whoa, a double-dip, two-scoop serving of content on weekdays?
More helado from Halina!
(Reminds me of the old days of hand-cranking ice-cream that was chilled by a Saline solution.)
Fond memories of doing that as a kid.
It made the best ice cream