Same-party transitions are surprisingly difficult

And this time, the Senate math is perilous

It’s no secret that a number of wealthy Democratic Party donors would like Kamala Harris, if she wins the election, to replace Lina Khan as chair of the FTC.

My sense is that in part because this secret is so poorly kept, it’s extremely unlikely to come to fruition. The parties are somewhat asymmetrical in this regard, but I think most Democratic Party politicians are allergic to being seen as taking orders from donors, so going on television with this kind of idea is pretty counterproductive. Khan has a potent political operation acting on her behalf, and Harris is not particularly dependent on tech industry bundlers anyway, so this would be a somewhat odd concession to make.

On the other hand, SEC Chair Gary Gensler is also in the hot seat and, I think, on less certain ground. The crypto industry in general doesn’t like him, and in particular, the very effective Harris surrogate Mark Cuban doesn’t like him. There isn’t much of an affirmative constituency for a crackdown on the crypto industry, which also has a lot of support among random people who own crypto, and which has brought a number of congressional Democrats around to their view.

But this raises a larger question about what the transition to a Harris administration would look like.

A president who’s just won a second term would be unlikely to replace the SEC Chair, barring misconduct or some kind of scandal. By the same token, a Democratic Party president taking over from a Republican would be equally unlikely to keep the SEC Chair in place, and vice versa for a Republican taking over from a Democrat. A new administration doesn’t fire individual agency heads — the outgoing administration’s people tender their resignations, and the president simply appoints a whole new team. That is not, however, a law. It’s simply a norm.

So what happens when a Democrat is elected to replace a Democrat? It hasn’t actually happened since 1856, and a Republican replacing a Republican is also pretty rare — that happened in 1988 and way back in 1924.

And the answer is, it can get pretty awkward.