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City Of Trees's avatar

It will be a very notable and consequential example of anti-bigness resulting in bad outcomes if it scuttles this bill.

Polytropos's avatar

Today’s Iran war news is… really grim. The Iranians managed to hit at least five commercial ships in the Persian Gulf. They or their Houthi allies somehow managed to hit and paralyze Salalah on the south coast of Oman— the only big deep water transshipment port between the Indian Subcontinent and the Cape of Good Hope that’s not blocked by the Bab Al Mandeb or Strait of Hormuz chokepoints. They also have started to mine the Strait. After a sharp uptick in interception failures yesterday, the UAE defense ministry suddenly stopped publishing interception stats. The US Navy is reportedly turning down escort requests because they currently deem it too risky to send large combat vessels into the Persian Gulf (before the start of the war the Fifth Fleet retreated from Bahrain to the Arabian Sea.) Small and cheap SAM systems in Iran have prevented the US from achieving complete air supremacy there as expected.

Overall, it seems increasingly likely that the US is not capable of protecting shipping through Hormuz and has no clear and actionable plan for making it safe, and that the air defense of the Gulf States’ fragile and economically important infrastructure is failing. The current moment feels a bit like the explosive spread of COVID outside of China in February 2020– the brutal constraints of the situation are very clear to people paying sufficient attention, things are potentially going to get very rough for much of the world very quickly, and the reality hasn’t sunk in.

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