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Laura Duffy's avatar

Shameless plug, but my colleagues and I did a big research project on this last year.

TLDR is that there’s evidence against 2024 LLMs being conscious (compared to strong evidence of chickens being conscious). But the evidence is less strong against LLM consciousness than it is for early AI systems like ELIZA

https://rethinkpriorities.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Digital_Consciousness_Model.pdf

We basically took 13 philosophical theories of consciousness and built a probabilistic model that mapped them onto traits that we could (in principle or in fact) measure in humans, AI systems, animals, etc. Then we surveyed academics and other experts to gather data on those traits, and used it to update the probability that AI systems, humans, and animals (chickens, in this case) are conscious. Most of the philosophical theories found that the probability of 2024 LLMs being conscious went down from our starting prior, but a few went up. By comparison, humans ended up very high (which is reassuring!) and chickens ended up reasonably high. So that’s evidence against LLM consciousness, but it wasn’t as strongly against it as it was for older AI systems.

Obviously this doesn’t tell you which theory of consciousness is correct, but if you do put some credence in the ones we studied, it can be hopefully helpful to track AIs now and in the future

Daniel Greco's avatar

I regularly teach philosophy of mind and am very sympathetic to Dennett's overall approach, but I still don't think it's very plausible that current LLMs are conscious.

I like the idea that consciousness is a real-time monitoring system for maintaining homeostasis for agents with fragile bodies subject to all sorts of degradation and damage. Is the body getting too cold, so that it should seek out warmth? Is it getting low on nutrients, so it should seek out food? LLMs are trained, but they're subject to very different selection pressures from humans, and it's plausible to me that they don't really need a system that plays the sort of functional roles that consciousness does.

E.g., you describe them as "patient." With humans, I think it's plausible that boredom is a relatively high-level, abstract part of this monitoring system; an agent with various goals that must be traded off each other does well to potentially get bored when whatever it's currently doing isn't producing much value, so that it will shift its attention to higher-return activities. If LLMs don't have to make those sort of real-time prioritization decisions, they probably don't get bored, and so don't have to have anything like "patience" as a way to combat boredom.

That said, I 100% agree about the overall shape that arguments against AI consciousness would need to have, and that most of the ones you see in the popular press--including Chiang's--don't have it.

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