Half-assed investment advice, why local budgets are hard, and the Barstool Right
We’ve been enjoying the Blue Hill peninsula — it’s been fantastic to have the extended family together, we’ve eaten plenty of lobster rolls, and through a coincidence of vacation timing I even met Nate Silver for the first time. Maine! It’s great! But I’ll also be glad to have the school year back in session next week and life returning to normal.
In other news, this writeup emphasizes the negative, but you can see in the data that perceptions of the economy are improving. You can also see that inflation in tradable goods has really fallen dramatically. Decoupling from China seems to be actually happening. Phonics legislation is taking the country by storm. A great look at housing reform in Maine generally and the specific city of Auburn in particular. The construction of more and cheaper batteries is proving its worth this summer in Texas in terms of improved reliability of the electric grid — the more affordable batteries become, the more room we have to run with adding renewables. I always love a good ancient DNA breakthrough.
There’s a huge surge in employment opportunities for young people without a college degree, if they’re willing to sign up for training in the trades. Fresh evidence that it’s good when low-income people have more money.
Now let’s do some questions.
Zach Reuss: In a world of declining fertility rates and potentially falling global populations. Should we really expect the stock market to continue to return 6-7% a year?
If I'm not planning to retire until 2060 should I be making different financial decisions?
I don’t know what decisions you’re making now so I can’t really give you advice, but I agree that aggregate stock market returns are likely to be lower in a world of slower population growth. On the other hand, maybe by 2060 the world will be populated by trillions of digital people and our AI overlords will allow a dwindling number of humans to live out a lovely retirement?
Matt: Do you think the growth of the private equity industry is a net positive or net negative for the US?
Are there any reforms you would propose for regulation of the private equity industry?
Private equity is a mixed bag.
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