Mailbag: The payment system endgame

Plus remakes, the genius of Susan Collins, and the case against fearing a gay candidate

The days really feel like weeks here in the Trump era, and we had a whole news cycle about an American takeover of the Gaza Strip come and go while this mailbag was open. It’s exhausting! But it’s always a pleasure to answer some questions.

Before we get to that, on the subject of acting rather than scrolling, I think that an incredibly high value thing that a person can do right now is support Blake Gendebien’s campaign to fill the vacancy left by Elise Stefanik’s elevation to UN Ambassador. This is a very red seat and the odds of victory are low. But of the various upcoming House special elections, it’s the most winnable because it’s the kind of district that has a good number of ancestral Democrats who may be open to voting for the right kind of candidate. Glendebien is a moderate, backed by the Blue Dogs, with a nice message. You can contribute here.

Objectively, this is a long shot. But, again, if you’re worried about Trump, my advice would be to spend less time worrying and more time doing something. Giving Blake Gendebien money is something you can do. And if you have friends who want to talk to you about how Trump is bad, I would suggest encouraging them to ruminate less and donate more.

---

Daniel Muñoz: What’s going on with Elon and DOGE poking around federal databases (apparently without legal authorization)? Can anyone stop them?

I said this on Politix, but here is my best guess as to what is happening:

1. In the event of a debt ceiling breach, the Treasury Department maintains that it cannot prioritize payments (for example, to bondholders) while leaving other bills unpaid.

2. In the event of a government shutdown, large swathes of federal employees (soldiers, border agents, air traffic controllers) keep working, but they don’t get paid.

The former is a technical limitation, but it’s a limitation Treasury has never addressed, because it represents Treasury’s longstanding understanding of the law. The latter is just a legal issue. But in both cases, the upshot is to create political pressure to make a deal with Congress and get things done. My guess is that at a minimum Musk is saying, “Let’s not use the technical limits of the payment system as an excuse, let’s actually address those limits.” That way, if Trump ends up in a standoff with Congress over the debt ceiling, he can ensure that bond holders still get paid. Would that be enough to avert a crisis in the financial markets? I’m not entirely sure. But it would plausibly help and certainly strengthen his leverage in negotiations.

With the shutdown, I’m less certain. It would be illegal to keep paying people without appropriation. But if you have political appointees controlling the payment system, could anyone stop you? Who will be the person who sues to say the troops need to not get paid?

Brian T: What are your thoughts on how the shift away from text and toward video as a way of disseminating information — especially on how it might affect politics and culture?

I think the big difference here isn’t text versus video per se, but the declining role of writers.