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Andy's avatar

This was an interesting and well-written piece, but unfortunately, I think most of it is not relevant to the fundamental problems of this region.

The endemic problems in Central America generally and the Northern Triangle specifically predate climate change and US meddling and would exist even if the US zeroed out carbon emissions tomorrow. And the root problem is weak governance that has allowed space for corruption and competing governing institutions, including the gangs.

Well-intentioned programs that purport to improve some metric by "x" percentage by doing "y" are not new, but such ivory-tower estimates always crashed into the reality of the fundamental issues of governance and corruption. Money and effort are sapped away and even when projects are completed, there is very rarely follow-through in terms of sustainment. US development efforts in the region end up very much as they have in Afghanistan - another country with weak governance, endemic violence, rampant corruption, and a low-trust society.

Weak governance in this region goes back to the mid-19th century when these countries became independent. Many local governments cannot provide basic services and are under the influence of organized violent groups. The notion that what local governments need is "better planning strategies" assumes a level of capacity, capability, independence, and influence that few local governments actually have.

These are problems the US can't really solve. The best things we could do are end the drug war and focus on efforts designed to improve governing capacity in these countries. But we shouldn't expect that even these things will do much considering the history of failure of historic US efforts to improve governance.

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Brian S Levy's avatar

Climate change is a global problem. But, what if the root problems causing immigration are escaping poverty, violence, political oppression and lack of opportunity? I'm not sold on cause and effect here. Florida has hurricanes, California has fires, pollution and other climate change issues too, but every one of these Northern Triangle immigrants would much rather live in either state. I would suggest that most people want to come to the US because of economics, safety and freedom.

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