Why we got more inflation than I expected

My first big forecasting error

In my December post “How To Be Less Full of Shit,” one of the quantified predictions I made was a forecast with 90% confidence that year-on-year core inflation would not go over 3% at any point in 2021.

On Thursday, the BLS not only reported eye-popping 5% overall inflation (because of gas prices) but core inflation of 3…

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