Would appreciate a rough estimate of the date of footnote 2 when you felt he was capable.
Do you really give Biden credit for Sweden and Finland entering NATO? Is it possible that a more capable Dem could have kept Russia from invading Ukraine?
This may not be the right place for a pep talk and I may not be the right guy but... chin up, Matt! Lots of well educated and highly compensated professionals missed on the internet bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008. Remember the first rule of bubbles - if you're stuck in one, stop digging. Ooops - the rule is, its damnably difficult to recognize a bubble from the inside.
Or if the Biden situation looks like an orchestrated cover-up, think of those duped by the Enron gang, Bernie Madoff, or that Thanos woman. (Oh, snap - it was Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos.)
Matt, if you were right all the time you could pass as the Lord Almighty and ask Biden to step aside.
Solid Mea Culpa. But when Robert Hur pointed out Biden's forgetfulness and lack of mental acuity, you attacked him as a GOP operative. Hur specifically is probably owed an apology.
Thanks for this, Mr. Y. I was wrong, too, and should have been more suspicious, at least since March. What makes me mad is all the Dems who seem clueless as to how ordinary voters—folks with limited tribal loyalties to the Democrats—have their own common-sense view of aging. A human’s decline after 75 is often as rapid as a kid’s growth before puberty. While we all hoped for something different for Biden, clearly Nature had other ideas.
Given that Biden is the nominee and is not dropping out, what obligation do you have to cease the anti-biden push? As you say, you believe a trump presidency is much worse for america than an aging biden overseeing a capable white house. As such, do you think pundits relentlessly focusing on him dropping out is going to be helpful to defeating trump? honest question. It seems your integrity and intellectual interests run afoul of your political commitments.
Given that Biden is the nominee and is not dropping out, what obligation do you have to cease the anti-biden push? As you say, you believe a trump presidency is much worse for america than an aging biden overseeing a capable white house. As such, do you think pundits relentlessly focusing on him dropping out is going to be helpful to defeating trump? honest question. It seems your integrity and intellectual interests run afoul of your political commitments.
Getting hammered by the press and the democrat political class can only be good for Biden's prospects if he can survive to the election. Hot take, he wins easily if he can survive y'all.
Consider two scenarios facing a Senate or House candidate in a close election.
In one, they have to say why they're supporting a fairly unpopular D candidate, say Harris. That's pretty easy. She would preserve democracy, Obamacare, ... That should not be a deal-breaker for a swing voter who likes the congressional candidate but doesn't like Harris' vibe and might not vote for her.
In the other they have to explain why they are supporting someone slipping into senility for President. There is a good reason- stopping Trump- but it's still going to leave swing voters extremely uneasy with the congressional candidate.
We have to get Biden out for the sake of holding on in Congress, even if there's no clear shot at beating Trump.
If he forces his way to the nomination, I think the simple solution is for downballot Dems to effectively triage him and campaign as being a check on an inevitable future Trump presidency. I'm guessing most voters assume Trump is going to win at this point, Trump still consistently puts up double-digit negative favorability ratings, and Americans have shown in recent elections they still oppose far-right policies. I don't know if it would result in majorities in either chamber, let alone both, but it could be an effective strategy in minimizing the damage a continued Biden candidacy would cause for downballot candidates.
If you believe that Kamala Harris is an adequate replacement level candidate, and Biden is all on board for dropping out and doing what's best for team Democrat... would it be best for him to drop out after the convention so that Harris becomes the presumed nominee and the fundraising apparatus stays largely intact?
Or is it better for the dems to nominate Harris or some other major dem after much internal debate ?
and is it okay if the current fundraised cash goes back to various super pacs who operate in a more decentralized way?
1. Since Biden himself has to make this choice, I think he could reasonably insist on handpicking his successor. Maybe he would go with Harris. My hope is he can decide on someone else. It would basically be like he's picking a second vice president, which is entirely his decision. He should do it as soon as possible to give the next candidate time to hire a campaign staff, start running ads, etc.
2. Super PACs don't donate money to candidates. They theoretically don't communicate with candidates at all. So assuming they remain all in on getting a Democrat elected, they would simply use their funds for that.
I've been waiting to see if Democrats who matter broke with Biden. Schiff all but said it publicly today. I doubt he decided to randomly do that on his own. Senior Democrats want him out.
The press genuinely has had it in for Biden even before he announced in 2019. He's an old, moderate white dude who has never been all that articulate, and he's not up on all the cool new lingo like BIPOCAAPI or LGBTQIA. He's smart, but not Harvard law professor smart. Obama made a huge mistake convincing him to step aside and let Clinton run in 2016.
And now the press as gone absolutely bananas after the debate. I can't remember a time when the NYT ran basically the same piece from *every single oped writer*, not to mention the editorial. It's crazy.
Which is to say, if I were Biden, I wouldn't listen to any of those other people either. He has been underestimated by professional politics knowers and he has proven them wrong over and over again.
And now that they're finally right, it's a boy who cried wolf situation. I still see the duck. Biden is showing signs of aging, sure, and it's possible there's been a rapid decline in the past few months. But I saw bad faith coverage on him in 2019 from people who simply disliked his politics. The press's post-debate coverage has been incredibly gross and created a self-fulfilling prophecy. But this is not about being fair to Joe Biden. It's about trying to win this election against stiff odds. A scandal like this is catnip for journalists, where bits and pieces of non-news will Raise Questions, just as Hillary Clinton's emails and Trump's Russia stuff did.
So now we need a Hail Mary. I think an open convention is a disastrous idea. Which I think would leave it to Biden to pick his successor. I'm still holding out some hope it's not Harris. Biden does love Mayor Pete.
It appears clear from Biden’s actions today that he is totally committed to reject all advice from outside his immediate circle as as he in effect in the ABC interview with Georgie that if he goes down either the ship so be it.
Everyone says they are running until the second they drop out. I'm not surprised Biden is still trying to turn this around. Any politician would still be trying.
And It's certainly not a guarantee Biden will listen to anyone. After all, the past nine years have proved him right and his detractors wrong at every step, not to mention the narcissism required to run for president in the first place. But if Schiff is off the leash, I have to wonder if Schumer and Pelosi have decided to knee cap him.
Every complaint I hear about Kamala Harris basically comes down to, "where is she?" The best thing Biden could do for our chances of beating Trump would be to drop out of the race AND resign from office. That would allow Kamala to be front and center messaging while in a position of power and authority. It would be almost like having incumbency power despite losing Biden.
The last thing Harris needs is a half-assed three-month presidential record while she's running for office. We use her as a clean slate. She takes credit for all of Biden's good work and throws him under the bus for the bad.
For those of us that saw the duck quite some time ago this has been frustrating. While I’m not happy it’s a duck I am glad that Matt finally sees it. A lesson in motivated reasoning.
Great column.
Would appreciate a rough estimate of the date of footnote 2 when you felt he was capable.
Do you really give Biden credit for Sweden and Finland entering NATO? Is it possible that a more capable Dem could have kept Russia from invading Ukraine?
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/6R8TFovtEPG3CJPm/?mibextid=UalRPS
This may not be the right place for a pep talk and I may not be the right guy but... chin up, Matt! Lots of well educated and highly compensated professionals missed on the internet bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008. Remember the first rule of bubbles - if you're stuck in one, stop digging. Ooops - the rule is, its damnably difficult to recognize a bubble from the inside.
Or if the Biden situation looks like an orchestrated cover-up, think of those duped by the Enron gang, Bernie Madoff, or that Thanos woman. (Oh, snap - it was Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos.)
Matt, if you were right all the time you could pass as the Lord Almighty and ask Biden to step aside.
Every take is improved by a Wittgenstein reference
Well dang. Now I have to cancel my subscription.
Solid Mea Culpa. But when Robert Hur pointed out Biden's forgetfulness and lack of mental acuity, you attacked him as a GOP operative. Hur specifically is probably owed an apology.
Thanks for this, Mr. Y. I was wrong, too, and should have been more suspicious, at least since March. What makes me mad is all the Dems who seem clueless as to how ordinary voters—folks with limited tribal loyalties to the Democrats—have their own common-sense view of aging. A human’s decline after 75 is often as rapid as a kid’s growth before puberty. While we all hoped for something different for Biden, clearly Nature had other ideas.
Joe Biden will still win bro. It'll be alright .
Given that Biden is the nominee and is not dropping out, what obligation do you have to cease the anti-biden push? As you say, you believe a trump presidency is much worse for america than an aging biden overseeing a capable white house. As such, do you think pundits relentlessly focusing on him dropping out is going to be helpful to defeating trump? honest question. It seems your integrity and intellectual interests run afoul of your political commitments.
Given that Biden is the nominee and is not dropping out, what obligation do you have to cease the anti-biden push? As you say, you believe a trump presidency is much worse for america than an aging biden overseeing a capable white house. As such, do you think pundits relentlessly focusing on him dropping out is going to be helpful to defeating trump? honest question. It seems your integrity and intellectual interests run afoul of your political commitments.
Getting hammered by the press and the democrat political class can only be good for Biden's prospects if he can survive to the election. Hot take, he wins easily if he can survive y'all.
Biden's getting hammered by the voters. Democrats and the press are going easy on him by comparison.
Opinions differ.
Polls speak for themselves
Consider two scenarios facing a Senate or House candidate in a close election.
In one, they have to say why they're supporting a fairly unpopular D candidate, say Harris. That's pretty easy. She would preserve democracy, Obamacare, ... That should not be a deal-breaker for a swing voter who likes the congressional candidate but doesn't like Harris' vibe and might not vote for her.
In the other they have to explain why they are supporting someone slipping into senility for President. There is a good reason- stopping Trump- but it's still going to leave swing voters extremely uneasy with the congressional candidate.
We have to get Biden out for the sake of holding on in Congress, even if there's no clear shot at beating Trump.
If he forces his way to the nomination, I think the simple solution is for downballot Dems to effectively triage him and campaign as being a check on an inevitable future Trump presidency. I'm guessing most voters assume Trump is going to win at this point, Trump still consistently puts up double-digit negative favorability ratings, and Americans have shown in recent elections they still oppose far-right policies. I don't know if it would result in majorities in either chamber, let alone both, but it could be an effective strategy in minimizing the damage a continued Biden candidacy would cause for downballot candidates.
If you believe that Kamala Harris is an adequate replacement level candidate, and Biden is all on board for dropping out and doing what's best for team Democrat... would it be best for him to drop out after the convention so that Harris becomes the presumed nominee and the fundraising apparatus stays largely intact?
Or is it better for the dems to nominate Harris or some other major dem after much internal debate ?
and is it okay if the current fundraised cash goes back to various super pacs who operate in a more decentralized way?
1. Since Biden himself has to make this choice, I think he could reasonably insist on handpicking his successor. Maybe he would go with Harris. My hope is he can decide on someone else. It would basically be like he's picking a second vice president, which is entirely his decision. He should do it as soon as possible to give the next candidate time to hire a campaign staff, start running ads, etc.
2. Super PACs don't donate money to candidates. They theoretically don't communicate with candidates at all. So assuming they remain all in on getting a Democrat elected, they would simply use their funds for that.
If he does have the ability to just pass the baton to Harris, he should absolutely do so. I think the problem was the difficulties in doing so.
I've been waiting to see if Democrats who matter broke with Biden. Schiff all but said it publicly today. I doubt he decided to randomly do that on his own. Senior Democrats want him out.
The press genuinely has had it in for Biden even before he announced in 2019. He's an old, moderate white dude who has never been all that articulate, and he's not up on all the cool new lingo like BIPOCAAPI or LGBTQIA. He's smart, but not Harvard law professor smart. Obama made a huge mistake convincing him to step aside and let Clinton run in 2016.
And now the press as gone absolutely bananas after the debate. I can't remember a time when the NYT ran basically the same piece from *every single oped writer*, not to mention the editorial. It's crazy.
Which is to say, if I were Biden, I wouldn't listen to any of those other people either. He has been underestimated by professional politics knowers and he has proven them wrong over and over again.
And now that they're finally right, it's a boy who cried wolf situation. I still see the duck. Biden is showing signs of aging, sure, and it's possible there's been a rapid decline in the past few months. But I saw bad faith coverage on him in 2019 from people who simply disliked his politics. The press's post-debate coverage has been incredibly gross and created a self-fulfilling prophecy. But this is not about being fair to Joe Biden. It's about trying to win this election against stiff odds. A scandal like this is catnip for journalists, where bits and pieces of non-news will Raise Questions, just as Hillary Clinton's emails and Trump's Russia stuff did.
So now we need a Hail Mary. I think an open convention is a disastrous idea. Which I think would leave it to Biden to pick his successor. I'm still holding out some hope it's not Harris. Biden does love Mayor Pete.
It appears clear from Biden’s actions today that he is totally committed to reject all advice from outside his immediate circle as as he in effect in the ABC interview with Georgie that if he goes down either the ship so be it.
Everyone says they are running until the second they drop out. I'm not surprised Biden is still trying to turn this around. Any politician would still be trying.
And It's certainly not a guarantee Biden will listen to anyone. After all, the past nine years have proved him right and his detractors wrong at every step, not to mention the narcissism required to run for president in the first place. But if Schiff is off the leash, I have to wonder if Schumer and Pelosi have decided to knee cap him.
Every complaint I hear about Kamala Harris basically comes down to, "where is she?" The best thing Biden could do for our chances of beating Trump would be to drop out of the race AND resign from office. That would allow Kamala to be front and center messaging while in a position of power and authority. It would be almost like having incumbency power despite losing Biden.
The last thing Harris needs is a half-assed three-month presidential record while she's running for office. We use her as a clean slate. She takes credit for all of Biden's good work and throws him under the bus for the bad.
Agree.
For those of us that saw the duck quite some time ago this has been frustrating. While I’m not happy it’s a duck I am glad that Matt finally sees it. A lesson in motivated reasoning.