Did the Vietnam War protests backfire?

It depends on what you think they were trying to accomplish.

The Gaza-related protests on college campuses across the US have, understandably, drawn comparisons to the anti-war protests of the 1960s. In particular, I’ve seen frequent assertions (in Politico, The Atlantic, and elsewhere, including a text from my dad) that the Vietnam protests led to significant backlash that should give today’s organizers pause.

As loyal readers know, I am very open to arguments of the form “this thing progressive activists are doing is counterproductive.”

But I do notice that most of these takes lack specific evidence, and are not differentiating adequately between gross backlash and net backlash. In other words, just because there’s “a backlash” to something doesn’t mean that it was counterproductive. Something that generates backlash among 10 people could be very productive if it also garners you 15 new recruits. The racial justice protests of 2020 clearly prompted some backlash, but on net, they seem to have helped Biden. Conversely, getting 15 new recruits could be counterproductive if it alienates 20 people.

You need to try to figure out which effect is larger. And after digging into the academic literature, my read is that the question of whether the Vietnam-era protests worked hinges crucially on your understanding of the protestors’ intent.