Democrats should take their opposition to Trump's tariffs seriously

Normal, pro-growth economics is good

The Trump administration’s tariff policy is unusual. Not only is it opposed by the vast majority of professional economists on both the left and right, but it generates immediate financial market feedback indicating that it’s a bad idea. Support seems tenuous among Trump’s own cabinet, and while there is certainly some support among congressional Republicans, it feels like pure leader-following. Nobody, in other words, is really demanding that Trump do this, and he’s running big political risks — risks that are unusually obvious because of the stock market.

It’s all the more notable because on some issues, like abortion, he clearly is facing significant pressure from both conservative elites and conservative grassroots to take political risks. But Trump is cautious about running these risks and relatively good at dominating his own coalition.

On tariffs, though, he’s calling his own shot.

The more “sophisticated” defenses of his approach insist that Trump doesn’t really mean it, or that it’s actually a negotiating ploy, or that the libs are somehow being unfair. The only politician I’m aware of who is really and truly endorsing Trump’s tariffs is moderate House Democrat Jared Golden, who’s putting out statements wholeheartedly agreeing with Trump and even has legislation that would create a universal 10 percent tariff. That bill goes beyond what Trump has done, but is in line with Trump’s campaign commitments. It’s also, to be clear, an extremely stupid bill. Which is too bad, because Golden is genuinely one of the best politicians we have in the United States, a reliably massive electoral overperformer who Democrats could learn a lot from.

Indeed, in purely cynical terms, this is kind of clever. To hold on in a Trumpy district, Golden needs to agree with Trump about some stuff, but it also helps him win if Trump is less popular. Golden backing Trump on tariffs is vacuous position-taking with no real impact, and Trump actually going full-throttle with tariffs and wrecking the economy is only going to bring his numbers down.

But to be clear, to the best of my knowledge, this is not some clever fake from Golden.

One of the reasons that he is politically effective at representing a district Obama won twice but has since gone for Trump three times is that he is very authentically in touch with the mind of the Obama-Trump crossover voter.

Many of these voters have fuzzy, incorrect ideas about trade, and I think Jared Golden is also perhaps someone who has fuzzy, incorrect ideas about trade. But here’s what I find notable: Golden really does more or less stand-alone here. Yet there are many on the left who attribute Democrats’ struggles with working class voters almost entirely to the free trade inclinations of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. There was a wrenching effort by progressive grantmakers and NGOs to overthrow “neoliberalism” in a way that was largely centered on trade policy. But faced with a president who deep in his bones doesn’t believe in the economics of comparative advantage, only Golden has the courage of his convictions to say that Trump is right.

Which is notable not because Trump is right, but because if you know that Trump is not right, then you ought to walk fully through the door and embrace pro-growth policies and normal economics.