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City Of Trees's avatar

Good article Ben, and I'd like to see you write more articles in this vein. Forest management is something that confounds a lot of people due to intuition, but humans have already extensively engineered this planet to their desires, thus a little counterengineering can do some good.

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Peter Gerdes's avatar

Please stop exaggerating the extent to which we know we can blame increases in fires on climate change. This is the kind of sloppiness that causes people to get frustrated and dismiss all the global warming concerns as just so much bullshit and social pressure. At the very least click through to the underlying studies cited to be sure they support your level of confidence.

If you follow through your link and trace through the footnote 2 you'll see it actually says (despite highlighting forest fires in a suggestive way) that we don't have the the evidence yet to say much about assigning causation. And the link itself is kinda sneaky in that it talks about how global warming extends the summer season in which fires happen -- but that doesn't actually show even a directional relationship much less that any effect is of non-trivial magnitude (time spent sleeping correlates with academic performance but doesn't mean sedatives help academic performance).

Footnote 3 is certainly an interesting study, but it doesn't really establish the claim you are citing it for. It had 2 major results -- that forest fires have been increasing over recent decades in the US (predicted by null hypothesis as well) and that years with earlier snowmelt and higher temperatures tended to have more fires. The problem is that we don't know if this means higher average temperatures result in more fires in long term or if it's mostly controlled by fuel availability and it's just that the fuel tends to get burnt in the warmer years. Hell, it's perfectly consistent with the idea that warmer temperatures will light forests sooner and thereby reduce overall acres burned.

Yes, of course, if I had to bet I'd obviously bet on forest fires net increasing as a result of global warming but with only low to moderate confidence and I have no idea about the effect size and my confidence that we've seen such a non-trivial effect will be even smaller but that's not what remarks like yours suggest to the reader and I don't think it's harmless.

No one is going "when it was only sea level rise I figured no big deal but now I know forest fires are affected I'm taking it seriously" but most people I know who resist climate change do so exactly because they don't know enough to read the papers but can sense that their being bullshited when it's name checked in every discussion about bad weather in a universally bad way and resent that.

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